Signing off/ 10,000 SNGs of data/ some FAQs

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
That number is 44.4% or 4/9. I'm not talking about playing against 9 robots programmed to make the worst decision possible on every hand, I'm talking about 9 opponents who are trying their best to win money, but just can't do it (a standard $6 SNG.) 44.4% is simply the best that anybody can do over infinity.


[/ QUOTE ]

I know you aren't interested in 'proving' any of this, and I think 44.4 isn't a horrible guess as to the highest possible ITM for a pro in the 5+1's but the way you worded the whole ITM section making it sound like this is anything but an educated guess based on experience could be misleading to the casual reader.


[ QUOTE ]
3. You have mastered another analytical game such as chess, bridge, backgammon, or gin. World-class status at games of incomplete information like bridge or gin are particularly likely to improve your chances of poker mastery, and vice versa. Dance Dance Revolution wouldn't count.


[/ QUOTE ]

If a requisite to learning a game of incomplete information is already mastering another one, nobody would ever master any game of incomplete information, yet some have. As you said Stu Ungar was a Gin master before he became a decent poker player, but I think it highly improbable that he ever played anywhere close to even half a million hands of Gin, let alone a million.

I know much of this 'FAQ' is directed at a fairly small group of players on this forum, but I don't think it will get to them as much as you likely think. Still, you make some excellent points overall and hopefully this can hold off the "WOWOW MY ROI IS 433% SHOULD I QUIT MY JOB?" posts for a little while.


My best of luck to you in the WSOP, I don't think it is likely I will go this year, but since you vaugely promise to be around next year, I will see you in 2006 (Feel free to take a prop bet against me). I really do hope you do well and I wish you success (but not too much, nobody wants another WPT Forum member).

-Apathy

[Dominic]

I'd love to buy you a beer when you're in Vegas, Irie...your posts have been invaluable to me....if you're interested, PM me.



[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[AJo Go All In]

A great $215 player can probably sustain 6% or so.

for what it's worth i think this number is way off. i'd put it in the 20% range.

[Amerzel]

I've always enjoyed reading your posts. Good luck to ya and .. Play good and get lucky.

[LotsOfOuts69]

Irieguy,

First I want to say thanks for the post and you had many interesting points.

I am fairly new to this forum and it has helped me alot on my poker adventures. I started out playing NL holdem on party a couple years ago and I can say that I lost early and often. I never read a poker book and basically learned the game the hard way.

I new nothing about aggressive bubble strategies, I couldn't even tell you how many 4th place SNG finishes I had early on, it was brutal. I would be second or third in chips and watch as the chip leader would steal my blind every round while continuosly folding to the short stack. My first thoughts were always collusion instead of great play.

I knew nothing of bankroll management or variance. I would take shots at the $200 sngs with $1000 bankrolls, only to win 2 in a row, and feel that I was the best in the world, and then blow all $3000.

I eventually found supersystem, and started venturing into multi-table tournies, finally making my biggest score in my poker career, finishing 2nd in a 750 person $55 MTT collecting $5000 for my efforts. This essextially got me back to even for my poker career.

I can honestly say from thsat point I have been a winning player, winning SNGs online and winning a satellite into the Foxwoods WPT event this year. I have also successfully qualified for the WSOP ME this year, it will be my first time at the series.

I only mention this because I found Irieguys post somewhat depressing at points, confidently saying that almost everyone who is winning now will be gone within a year. I think this is a poor statement and very demoralizing for the new players trying to become good at this game.

I want to tell everyone out there that it is possible to beat the rake and be a winning player, online or not, just keep playing and reading everything you can and you can prove Irieguy wrong.

--LoO

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
How can I tell if I'm really good at this game, or if I'm just a luckbox on a turbo-steamer?

I've commented on this several times before, but it's worth repeating and rephrasing. If you think you are really, really, good at poker... have you ever wondered why? Here are some very good possible explanations:

1. You are a game-theory expert with an academic background in a field of study that applies well to poker problem solving.

2. You have played 5 million or more deliberate hands of poker. (They have to be deliberate; you don't learn anything while drunk, screwing around, posting and folding, or gamboooling) and have been winning over the most recent significant sample. You can't just start out by beating the game. You can start out winning, but you can't start out beating the game.

3. You have mastered another analytical game such as chess, bridge, backgammon, or gin. World-class status at games of incomplete information like bridge or gin are particularly likely to improve your chances of poker mastery, and vice versa. Dance Dance Revolution wouldn't count.

4. You have extensive training and/or experience in a vocation that involves interacting with thousands of people a year who are under extreme emotional duress or jubilation: like a social worker, psychologist, physician, lawyer, or Keno runner. This type of experience allows you to become intimately familiar with how different people respond to different emotions.

5. You are a natural-born poker prodigy

[/ QUOTE ]

(a) I'm appalled at your lack of respect for Dance Dance Revolution (even though I don't even know what that is);

(b) I do think the numbers listed in the 109s and 215s are beatable (though they're much harder to obtain that people give credit for), but I also think people tend to inflate their numbers (or at least conveniently leave out a bad stretch or two) and the ones you list are much more accurate than what most people think/post - a lot of LAG types come into that game and run hot for a while, and then they're gone or have dropped back down when the long run catches up.

(c) Number 6 should be "live within 6 blocks of two Peete's Coffees and hit at least one up every day before you begin playing any SNGs";

Nice post.

[ZeeJustin]

Your post spouts off lies, miscalculations, and horrible estimates as if they are fact. That is the worst thing you could do in a peice of information like this.

[ QUOTE ]
The best player in the world against the worst players in the world would be very, very, very close to 44.4% ITM over infinity.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement is just absurd. A 45% ITM is attainable in the $10 sngs for sure by a merely expert player against merely average fish. Saying something as wild that this is not attainable even from the best player in the world vs the 9 worst players in the world is just totally absurd. I pity anyone that believes this to be even remotely close to being true.

[ QUOTE ]
A great $6/$11 player can probably sustain 30% or so.

A great $22/$33 player can probably sustain 22% or so.

A great $55 player can proabably sustain 18% or so.

A great $109 player can probably sustain 12% or so.

A great $215 player can probably sustain 6% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 25% roi is attainable in the $215's. If you allow some game selection, and only 1 table at a time, I imagine an expert could maintain 35-40% in the longrun (it's possible that those figures are high, the 25% is certainly not high).

I can't even imagine what kind of ridiculously high roi's must be possible in the lower buyins. You're underestimates just boggle my brain.

I imagine your research process must have been pretty horrid. If you have 10,000 sngs analyzing 10 different levels of play, thats only 1,000 sngs per level at most. If you want to talk about ROI of a great player, surely you must have tried more than 1 player at each level right? And I'm sure you realize how meaningless 500 sngs are. Please elaborate on your research proces, because I'm sure the huge flaws in it will be obvious.

And wtf is that stuff at the bottom about grammar? Is this whole post just a joke? If I'm missing some huge inside joke, I really apologize.

[tjh]

Great post !!

Good luck.

May you win the WSOP, get famous, and be forced to leave the forum. It will be a loss for us but you deserve the success. May you also get a bit of luck to accompany your skill.

--
tjh

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this whole post just a joke? If I'm missing some huge inside joke, I really apologize.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was kinda thinking the same thing but didn't want to say it.

[Pete]

someone having a bad day or what??