When to start wondering...

[Perseus]

I selected 200-250, but I misread the question.

I think I START wondering when I hit 150 but I would probably have a good feeling I had some leaks to plug if I went past 200.

I mean, if the players weren't so bad it would be so much easier to win...right?

I kid! I kid! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, if you've never had one worse than that in 5 years then you are very fortunate.

[/ QUOTE ]
I did not say that. I said that my answer to the questioned posed by the poll-- how much do you need to lose before you start to consider that you may not be a winner in your game-- is somewhere between 100 and 150 BBs.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
the fact that some people like to start examining their game closer during 100-150 BB swings doesn't mean that they're ignorant of statistics, or of the underlying variance of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is how I feel too. I wonder if I should have picked "< 100 BB" because really I think you should always be wondering whether you are really a favorite in your game and whether you are doing anything wrong.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
the fact that some people like to start examining their game closer during 100-150 BB swings doesn't mean that they're ignorant of statistics, or of the underlying variance of the game.


This is how I feel too. I wonder if I should have picked "< 100 BB" because really I think you should always be wondering whether you are really a favorite in your game and whether you are doing anything wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, and I almost chose the under 100 for pretty much this exact reason.

[SmileyEH]

It depends on the stakes. If you suffer a 100-150BB downswing in say your first 5k hands at 3/6 full or lower you are much more likely to have sever leaks than to be suffering variance because the possible earnrate/standard deviation ratio is just so high.

At 10/20 6max a 150BB downswing is nothing.

-SmileyEH

[bicyclekick]

It doesn't take a downswing. Worry about your game 24/7.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't take a downswing. Worry about your game 24/7.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live a poker life of constant doubt.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't take a downswing. Worry about your game 24/7. [ QUOTE ]

I live a poker life of constant doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't take a downswing. Worry about your game 24/7.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live a life of constant doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

-SmileyEH

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who selected 100-150 hasn't played poker for very long.

[/ QUOTE ]

Over my last 300,000 hands, I've gone through 4 200+BB downswings, my last one being 217BB in around 3,000 hands. As far as my last downswing is concerned, I followed that with a 421BB upswing within 3 days.

Sure, I worry about my game every time I'm below 100BBs, but the leaks I fill as a result will only help me out by about a fraction of a BB in the long-term.

Those fractions add up over time, and I'm glad that I have periods which force me to analyze my game and make helpless-sounding posts on these forums, but I have yet to have a time where a downswing has made me have doubts about being a winning player. The only thing I worry about is my timeline to straight-out owning an Escalade/Denali/LRV (I haven't decided yet) while continuing to support my family.

All in all, I believe that downswings keep you level-headed... force you to understand that NO, this isn't an ATM machine, but a long-term investment that requires sound financial responsibility and judgement.

Every downslide hurts, and it hurts bad... But as long as one is prepared for it (regarding bankroll), it is merely a bump in the road.