What did I get myself into.... PP 5/10NL - Page 4

Rotating Rabbit · #31 05-02-2005, 07:31 PM

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I hit my quarterly math quota with my threads last week

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lol I'll have to remember this one (studying maths, or at least pretending to, at the moment)

fimbulwinter · #32 05-02-2005, 07:46 PM

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (10 handed) converter

BB ($2475.75)
Hero ($1665.55)
UTG+1 ($1027)
UTG+2 ($1239.25)
MP1 ($489)
MP2 ($1042)
MP3 ($3144)
CO ($465.25)
Button ($433.05)
SB ($2340.12)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero calls $10, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $50, 5 folds, BB calls $40, Hero raises to $200, MP1 raises to $489 (All-In), BB calls $439.

Hero?

I was fairly certain that MP1 was pushing AK, AQ or JJ too hard, that had been a trend with that player who tends to trap with AA in unopened pots, especially when his stack size had gotten around the $500 level. BB is a bit of an unknown, hasn't gotten out of line but didn't seem very tricky either. So push or bail?

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I think you're in fantastic shape EV-wise here against their likely range of hands. I think you can get your dough in as a solid favorite over both hands if you push.

fim

shmahappens · #33 05-02-2005, 07:48 PM

I think the main pot/sidepot characteristics of this hand make it a call to see the flop.

So if you take the flop and an A or K comes you can easily get out, even if BB has AA or KK, an option you wouldn't have if you kept raising PF. If he has AK, and you didn't force him out pf it makes no differnce: if an A flops you're likely lost to the MP (AK/AQ more likely than JJ by the poster's read) so the entire pot (since we've made no sidepot by not re-re-re or wahtever - raising) is a lost cause, and you get out with what's left of your stack.

The only benefit to pushing would be if BB is going to call you with AK, which we have ruled out, right? He's getting about 1:3.5 (1500 pot, you raise another 1000), so would be an easy laydown. He's not going to call you with JJ, and if he has KK/AA we want to get away.

Based on your limp reraise, and the fact that he's solid it isn't likely that BB has lower than JJ (as you ARE limp-reraising to 'isolate' an agro player, so your limp-reraise might go as low as JJ), so there is only one possible set you could worry about, possibly 1010.

In conclusion (I realize I write a book, sorry) by seeing a flop you give yourself chances to get away from AA/KK, don't risk your stack vs them preflop (without a chance to win more preflop unless you're dominated, due to the lack of sidepot), and only give a very tiny amount of hands a possible set.

I realize I made some assumptions here: BB won't call your all-in with AK/JJ, and that MP has AQ or AK so if an ace or king flops you can assume you've lost the sidepot (the entire preflop pot up to this point). However these seem like logical assumptions?

A final note: if an undercard board comes out I don't see a way you could (or should) get away from this hand (as by smooth calling PF the BB might put you on a whiffed AK and lead out with JJ-QQ), however by calling you induce this bluff (from JJ-QQ), while an AK wouldn't be likely to bluff at you now, since if he puts you on the same hand he is risking money to win nothing (no sidepot). He might lead into you with AA or KK, but in that case it appears your money is going into the pot just as if you pushed PF as advocated in other posts.

shmahappens · #34 05-02-2005, 08:41 PM

I realize I write books noone wants to slog through, so let me see if I can make it a little cleaer.

A) All-in: You win $0 from sidepot, play vs. MP for 1500.
PF call: Flop J-high: You win 0$ from sidepot and (likely) win mainpot of $1500
Flop A/K: you lose $0 to sidepot, you lose no more (as MP would likely have won with this flop anyways)

B) All-in: You (likely, no Q) lose $1000 more.
PF call: Flop A/K, you fold, lose nothing more.
Flop J-high, you lose $1000.

C) All-in: You win $0 from side pot, play vs. MP for 1500.
PF call: On A/K flop you check through, likely lose mainpot to MP. If 10-high flop, you likely double through BB. If BB hits two outer maybe you can read him for a set, if not you lose $1000.

All-in will force out a hand that only has 2 outs vs. you (JJ), and AK (which MP likely already has, so if BB would have flopped a winner vs. you MP will have too, and you’d lose the pot no matter what), while risking all of your money vs. AA/KK.

Smooth call will allow you an easy fold if you would have likely lost to MP anyways, a chance to get your stack in vs. an optimistic JJ (that would have folded PF had you gone all in, whereas in this line will double you up), and a chance to get fold vs. AA or KK.

I’d normally say push PF to keep an AK from seeing cards, but since MP likely has those cards anyways, and there’s no way he’s getting out, and you serve to win nothing (other than possible EV if say MP had AQ and BB has AK, and the small amount if he has JJ) by folding BB, take a flop giving you a chance to get away when beat, and in a perfect world double up off his JJ.

IHateCats · #35 05-02-2005, 10:30 PM

In retrospect and with the better part of a day to think about it I think ML4L's All In line and read are correct here far more often than not. At the time I thought it was at least 60% or better I was up against an overpair from the Blind player. However in the heat of the moment I didn't realize how unusual this would be for an unknown player and unable to decide where I would be at if undercards came out and knowing I'd be unlikely to laydown after betting a low card flop, I took easily the worst of all 3 options and folded.

Flop: ($1183) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($1183) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1183) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1183

Terrible decision on my part but all things considered, I'm very, very glad I didn't flat call & bet the flop because I doubt I'd have gotten away from it there. Having seen the BB player play another not quite 1k hands since, I seriously doubt anything short of a nuclear weapon will get him to fold a pair larger than 55 preflop. Moral of the story is never understimate the donkey factor of an unknown player.

Thanks to all who contributed, I learned quite a bit from this discussion.

Huskiez · #36 05-02-2005, 11:04 PM

What did BB and MP1 have by the way?

Sounds like BB hit a set?

IHateCats · #37 05-02-2005, 11:12 PM

Flop: ($1183) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($1183) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1183) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1183
BB balance $3166.75, bet $489, collected $1180, net +$691 [ 7h 7d ] [ three of a kind, sevens -- Tc,7h,7d,7s,5s ]

MP balance $0, lost $489 [ Ad Ks ] [ high card ace -- Ad,Ks,Tc,7s,5s ]