This Is An Easy Fold, Right?

[swolfe]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=933378
pokenum -h ac 2c - kd qd - jh th -- 9c ks 8c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ks 9c 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 2c 410 45.40 493 54.60 0 0.00 0.454
Kd Qd 339 37.54 564 62.46 0 0.00 0.375
Jh Th 154 17.05 749 82.95 0 0.00 0.171

it's tough to call it since you're not closing the action and MP may reraise. if i thought i had any fold equity at all, i'm pushing...otherwise the fold is fine.

[-Skeme-]

A few stats:

Hand 1: 44.7475 % [ 00.45 00.00 ] { Ac2c }
Hand 2: 55.2525 % [ 00.55 00.00 ] { KdQd }

Hand 1: 35.7576 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { Ac2c }
Hand 2: 64.2424 % [ 00.64 00.00 ] { AdKh }

Hand 1: 24.6465 % [ 00.25 00.00 ] { Ac2c }
Hand 2: 75.3535 % [ 00.75 00.00 ] { 9h9d }

[DoomSlice]

Call with the hopes that more people call or raise.

[Ghazban]

The preflop call isn't bad but folding isn't bad either. The problem, as others have stated, is that you're out of position and will be, barring a miracle A22 flop, looking to draw for a flush (or maybe a wheel). You don't even have position on the preflop raiser. If UTG had raised and a bunch of others called, a call would be much better as you could see how the field reacts to the raiser's expected flop bet before having to make a decision.

As it played out, though, you can't call on the flop. While the initial $12 isn't a bad price, somebody behind you might pop it back (either the original bettor or someone who was planning on checkraising the original bettor) and then you'll either have to fold then or you'll end up potstuck on a draw (depending on stack sizes and what other people do).

[CHiPS]

If I call the $12 and there is an all in reraise and the button calls the all in, then I can call and thats OK. Now I'm all in against two players with the Ace high flush draw, plus the dead money in the pot to begin with. One of them may have a set, but that is not a disaster.
On the plus side if both the other players also call the $12 then I'm in great shape if I hit the flush because there's a good chance one of them has a weaker flush and a person with top pair might still try jamming the pot.

[-Skeme-]

I'm really trying to avoid going all in here.

[Yeknom58]

I'd probably fold..but I would consider pushing a small percentage of the time with a read.

I might have bet out also hoping to get calls and freeze up the preflop raiser.

[edge]

I like leading this flop. If I'm raised, I can push here. Maybe I'm taking a hit EV-wise if I get all-in, but a lot of the time I'll take it down, and the times I get called, it sets up the same play with big hands, allowing me to get all-in on the flop with sets vs a raiser.

[-Skeme-]

I fold. Turn was a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and there is more betting. I can't remember the river. Button ended up folding to a bet on the river and whined about how the flush always has to come. Guy showed KJo and took it down uncontested.