routine river/overplayed river?

[SteveL91]

Personally, I'd just call the river. Although, with a player left to act behind you, a raise may not be a bad idea as he might decide to fold a pair of 6's for two bets or something. I'm really not sure how to figure out which is the better play, but I'm not folding. This is a fairly frequent occurance in SH pots: every street will be checked through and someone will decide to take a shot at the river. Sure, they may have hit their straight, or be betting a pair of 6s or something, but I think more often than not, it's just someone trying to buy an "unwanted pot."

[Aaron W.]

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That's a poor way of thinking about it. I'd risk 2BB to win 2BB as long as I've got better than a 50% chance of winning. Poker is all about finding +EV situations and taking them. It's not about the investment/return ratio, especially in shorthanded games.

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True statement. But against a field of 3? and 6 max also means the range of hand is greater. I don't think Hero is good 50% of the time.

I'd probably call, then fold, then raise.

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Now I'm confused. You don't think Hero is good 50% of the time, but your first choice is to call?

[aK13]

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That's a poor way of thinking about it. I'd risk 2BB to win 2BB as long as I've got better than a 50% chance of winning. Poker is all about finding +EV situations and taking them. It's not about the investment/return ratio, especially in shorthanded games.

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True statement. But against a field of 3? and 6 max also means the range of hand is greater. I don't think Hero is good 50% of the time.

I'd probably call, then fold, then raise.

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Now I'm confused. You don't think Hero is good 50% of the time, but your first choice is to call?

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I was commenting on the poster's idea to raise in this situation. If we call, we pay 1 to win 2, so we need to be good 1/3 times to make this call break even. I think that this percentage is much more reasonable, since SB might be bluffing enough to lean this towards +EV.

There is probably an argument that raising will likely knock out the button, so then it will actually be a 50/50 with the SB. But I think in this situation, you're raise is only going to get SB to call with hands that beat you, and fold hands that you beat.

[Entity]

I think I'd prefer a call to a raise here. I've gone over it and I think you've got the best hand often enough, and that overcalls really aren't detrimental to you here. I think overcalls are actually preferential.

[detruncate]

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I think I'd prefer a call to a raise here. I've gone over it and I think you've got the best hand often enough, and that overcalls really aren't detrimental to you here. I think overcalls are actually preferential.

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I got stuck on the idea that UTG wouldn't overcall with something I beat often enough to make calling correct, but I could be giving him too much credit. Might also have something to do with trying to do a better job of recognizing when it's correct to make these sorts of raises and getting overexcited when I actually come up with a prospect.

[detruncate]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: (1.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

Results:
SB has Kd 5h (one pair, fives).
Hero has As 5c (one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero wins 5.50 BB.

Thanks for the replies. I put SB on a 5 (with 2-pair or a straight less likely possibilities) and was prepared to fold to a 3-bet. As I've said, I thought that an overcall by UTG would mean bad news for me, but that's something I'm going to have to think more about. It came down to the combination of likely value raise + protection from overcalls.

The value raise part, at least, was correct in this instance, but I wanted to make sure I wasn't being results oriented. And protection from overcalls is something I know I don't think enough about, so it seemed like a good topic to bring up.

Cheers.