I need help with AQo!!! Hand from last nights $200 +$15 on UB. - Page 2

Pat Southern · #11 05-02-2005, 12:17 PM

Good point, I saw he said push or fold and I didn't really look at the stacks to see that they still have some chips behind them. Smooth call is much better here.

soxfan70 · #12 05-02-2005, 12:43 PM

My thinking there was almost exactly the opposite of yours. He was more likely to fold his 88 - JJ now. Maybe my thinking is flawed here, and please tell me if it is, but I'd rather take this down now, than call here and let him hit his set on the turn.

schwza · #13 05-02-2005, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking there was almost exactly the opposite of yours. He was more likely to fold his 88 - JJ now. Maybe my thinking is flawed here, and please tell me if it is, but I'd rather take this down now, than call here and let him hit his set on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

you want 88-JJ sticking around and putting as much money in as possible. if you think he'll get his stack in with those hands on the turn but not on the flop, then it's a bad mistake to shut him out of the pot.

if he winds up all-in on the turn, you're giving him two chances to hit a 2-outer, which is ~8%. the only time this would not be beneficial to you is if the pot were already huge relative to his stack, and it's not.

soxfan70 · #14 05-02-2005, 01:09 PM

MLG made a reply to one of my posts a while back about not making a bet (or a raise) because it would only be called by hands that beat you, and folded by hands that you beat. Do you think that concept applies here?

schwza · #15 05-02-2005, 01:16 PM

not really, because KQ/QJ and JJ-88 might call if you push.

i'd say it would apply better if you held something like TT.

Pat Southern · #16 05-02-2005, 01:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MLG made a reply to one of my posts a while back about not making a bet (or a raise) because it would only be called by hands that beat you, and folded by hands that you beat. Do you think that concept applies here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, pocket pairs <Q call you here. But you are in position against an aggressor with TPTK, by calling you extract the most, when ahead, lose the same when you're behind. Just hope an A or K doesn't come on the turn and he'll probably push into you.

soxfan70 · #17 05-02-2005, 01:27 PM

Well, as you can probably guess, I came over the top of the flop bet for all my chips and got called. He showed KK and I was done. Once I call the pre-flop re-raise I'm going broke here every time. I keep questioning my call of that re-raise. I think one person said they would have mucked to the re-raise. Does anyone think that that is too tight? I'm torn now, and I know it's easier after the fact, but what else would the guy have re-raised with in the BB, with the initial raise coming from the button?

Simplistic · #18 05-02-2005, 02:13 PM

as I said I muck to the re-raise, but with that flop you go with it.

by the way, i like calling down in this situation rather than pushing the flop

tiger7210 · #19 05-02-2005, 02:27 PM

The reason I opted to muck PF is a good player probably isn't making this re-raise out of position without a hand that beats AQ. To put myself in the position of the BB- i would rather keep the pot smaller with a hand like 77-JJ's AK/AQ/AJ knowing I'm going to be out of position after the flop. You also have to consider that you're going to be putting in 20% of your chips PF knowing you are going to whiff 2 out of 3 times and you know he's going to bet into you no matter what comes off.

I think this is a very similar situation to David Sklansky mucking AK PF to TJ's re raise from the BB with AQ.

If I'm holding a monster I don't mind playing a big pot out of position since my chips are going in anyways. His reraise to me was just enough to entice a call or push from a smaller pair/ AK/AQ which he doesn't want to fold.

I just don't believe laying down AQ PF at this stage of the tourny is weak/tight unless its to a maniac. It's certainly situation dependent but to me in this particular situation I have no problem tossing it now with only 120 chips invested.

bruce · #20 05-02-2005, 02:44 PM

Haven't read any of the comments, but I fold BTF. Did some
quick math and assuming he will reraise with pocket nines through Aces and also AK you will win ~25% of the time and
your preflop call is offering you only 2-1, so mathematically speaking you have a clear fold. Also why risk a big stack of chips when you only have a measley T120 invested.

Bruce