Lets discuss this hand - from 350K on Stars

SoBeDude · #1 05-02-2005, 01:22 AM

In the money, can't remember how many left, perhaps around 60?

I have 63,108 before posting the big blind.

Blinds are 4K/8K, 400 Ante, going up soon. 15,600 in the pot before any action.

Folded to the short stack in the cutoff who shoves all-in for 19600. I request time.

35,200 in the pot and its 11,600 for me to call. I'm getting 3.03 to 1 on the call.

If I call and lose I'll have 43,508 left and only 39108 after posting the SB and ante.

I have 83o.

I think if I call and lose (which is likely) then I lose much of my folding equity due to the reduced size of my stack. This means I lose steal-ability and must wait for a solid hand that will hold up all-in. Those are harder to find.

So I think and think and think and fold...and the 2+2 rail that was sweating me explodes in chatter about my horrible fold.

I think the call/fold situation is marginal, and the loss of FE tipped it to a muck.

Now if I had just another 10K in my stack, my call would have been automatic. but losing over 20% of my already short stack with such a horrible hand doesn't seem wise.

Is this really such an auto-call with such a horrible hand?

If the answer is yes, please explain with more than "you have the pot odds u gotta call"

-Scott

MLG · #2 05-02-2005, 01:31 AM

you don't lose much FE going from 7BBs to 5BBs. OTOH you gain a lot by moving to a stack size where you can raise less than all-in if you happen to win the hand.

I said it then, I'll say it now, this call is beyond automatic.

bugstud · #3 05-02-2005, 01:31 AM

it's really tough, I agree. I am inclined to fold, as you did.

EDIT - MLG pwns me

SoBeDude · #4 05-02-2005, 01:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you don't lose much FE going from 7BBs to 5BBs. OTOH you gain a lot by moving to a stack size where you can raise less than all-in if you happen to win the hand.

I said it then, I'll say it now, this call is beyond automatic.

[/ QUOTE ]

but WHY is this call so automatic when I'm a short stack? Help me understand why this is so and is a MUST call. Personally I think its close, not automatic. So if I'm looking at this wrong, I'd like to correct it. Help me get there.

-Scott

tiger7210 · #5 05-02-2005, 01:35 AM

Scott, my thoughts were exactly the same. I understand that mathematically you are absolutely correct to call here but my thoughts were losing those xtra 11k chips may really hurt your FE for any future steals making the call much more marginal.

I know MLG and Strassa stated that the call was unquestionably correct but when does your own stack size come into play in making this decision.

I hope some of the more experienced MTT's can explain further.

SoBeDude · #6 05-02-2005, 01:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Scott, my thoughts were exactly the same. I understand that mathematically you are absolutely correct to call here but my thoughts were losing those xtra 11k chips may really hurt your FE for any future steals making the call much more marginal.

I know MLG and Strassa stated that the call was unquestionably correct but when does your own stack size come into play in making this decision.

I hope some of the more experienced MTT's can explain further.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 'explain further' is really what I'm looking for here.

Clearly there is something to learn here and I wanna learn it. but just saying 'this is a call' really doesn't help me get there. I really need to understand the WHY behind it.

-Scott

gumpzilla · #7 05-02-2005, 01:44 AM

In the reply you quoted, MLG says this:

[ QUOTE ]

you don't lose much FE going from 7BBs to 5BBs. OTOH you gain a lot by moving to a stack size where you can raise less than all-in if you happen to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why he thinks it's a call.

EDIT: I'll comment that from my perspective, while you don't lose much in folding equity directly from going from 7 to 5 BBs, you're going to look awfully fishy to the uninformed at the table, which will be a nontrivial reduction in your FE. Also, even if your folding equity stayed the same, I think there's something to be said about doubling up to ~15 BBs instead of ~10 or 11. So I don't think it's an automatic call either, but I do think MLG was pretty clear about why he thinks you should call.

TheLoser · #8 05-02-2005, 01:45 AM

This call is not "beyond automatic" and I don't see how you can't get your brain past the odds. This is a very close call IMO you can't be whipping chips into the pot every time it is mathematically correct in tournaments!

CardSharpCook · #9 05-02-2005, 01:45 AM

I think you made the right play. What are we looking at here? Your are getting 3:1 on your money, IF he isn't paired your odds are about 1:2.5. This is pot odds correct, but you can't afford to take this bet. As a big stack, I take this every time, but especially with your stack size being what it is (at patience point, not desperation point), this is a should fold. There is the question of just how good does your hand have to be to call here. Is 67o good enough? IMHO, no. I'll take a mid suited semi-connector and that's as low as I go.

We've had this discussion here before. Different situation but same issue - Correct pot odds, but in a tournament. A tourney fundamental is knowing the you must pass up on some marginally +EV situations. I believe this is one such situation.

CSC

MLG · #10 05-02-2005, 01:48 AM

ok. start with a range of hands for this push. how about any A, any broadway any pair? I actually think this range is fairly conservative. 83o wins 30% of the time against those hands, and it would only need to win 25% of the time to justify a call getting 3:1 odds. This is a basic pot odds calculation. In order to fold then, you better have a good reason to give up 5% equity. In a tournament with such a steep structure you just won't have time to wait around looking for more edge than that. The increased FE you think you have isnt all that important here by comparison.