A Set of Threes - Monotone Board

[TheWorstPlayer]

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letting people see the river cheap is bad. i was too lazy to look at the stacks here but id raise a good amount.

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Agree completely. If LP is 'good postflop' he'll realise that with a flop bettor and raiser already in front of him, he is a)likely to get action if he has the nuts b)likely facing at least one hand that is drawing live against him (either a naked ace of trump if he has a non-nuts flush or a set if he has the nuts flush). Therefore, a good post flop player in his position should raise this flop. Since he flat called, I am expecting him to drawing the majority of the time. The only problem is that he could be 'drawing' with the top set.

But, if he was hesitant to commit a ton of chips on the flop, then he will probably be even more reluctant to commit even more chips with less equity against a made flush on the turn. So I would raise significantly, since it seems like you are almost definitely beating the SB (unless he is playing a baby flush like a donk, but will still call a raise with it) and you are most likely ahead of LP and if not, may even rarely cause him to fold a better hand. I definitely raise here. Can't let a diamond draw out for $8.

[CHiPS]

Yes you should raise here on the turn.
BB bet is weak, maybe a flush draw.
As for the caller behind you he called a preflop raise and your flop bet. He could have 1 diamond - If he called with a pair of aces through jacks, there's 12 ways to have 1 diamond although 2 of those ways give him trip Kings so 10. With AK or AQ theres 16 ways to have 1 diamond. 16+9 is 25 ways he could be drawing.
He called the preflop raise so I dont put him on all suited connectors or combinations with 2 diamonds - ah maybe 10 or 12 - add 2 possible ways to have trip kings + 3 ways to have trip 6's. We arent up to 25 so its more likely LP is drawing than has you nailed.
I'm gonna say there's a 65% chance he's drawing or you win with a full house. A guess.
Now just thinking about the LP guy if you go all in on the turn and he folds any draw you win $74 65% of the time and loose the $79 you would have to push 35% of the time. This is good. Of course he could call with something you beat but that's better for you. Or he could call with the draw and an overpair and hit. But still seems to work in your favor.
Betting $45 is interesting. I see that as 5:1 for him if he's drawing and gets the rest of your money, which he wont. So he could make a mistake by calling with the draw. If he calls with his draw and you will fold to any diamond on the River, then you win about $200 for that 65% of the time and only loose $45 35% of the time. But he may not always call with the draw, particularly a lower one. But the $45 bet is very interesting to me, it may actually be better than going all in. Because he's tempted to call with the draw and you will save your last $35 if he calls and the diamond hits. If you bet $45 and he raised though I'd call.
I know I have not thought of everything here. I blew off thinking about the BB cause I just wanted to think mainly about the situation vs the LP player. And I am new to thinking this specifically about hands like this, so if I missed something or improperly calculated something let me know. Wow theres a lot of math + guessing to think through this stuff. I am glad this forum is available.
Looking back at this though I'd call that last $35 if a diamond hit, the BB was out and the LP bet.
Just was about to go to bed - but I remembered something - you raised preflop. LP might think you have an overpair and might not put you on a set. Go all in on the turn. He might call with Aces or with AK and 1 diamond.

[radioheadfan]

When analyzing this we cannot forget to include the BB in the analysis. He lead the flop and called a raise from UTG even after LP called. He then led again on the turn (albeit a weak lead)...we have to consider the possibility that he has a monster (or at least a hand better than ours - baby flush or higher set)

And of course there's LP who's guaranteed to have at the very least a strong draw.

Maxing the win when ahead and min'ing the loss when behind in this spot is no joke. And of course...we don't wanna give free cards to the A diamonds - but maybe that's the safest way out of this mess?

They can't both have the A of diamonds...perhaps one is made and the other has the A? One has the A and the other a set?

There are definitely alot of unknowns in this problem ... the more I think about it the more it just seems like UTG should push and hope the river is a 3.

Tough spot for sure.....

[radioheadfan]

OK. So this hand is hard. I'll post the results for amusement's sake.

I was actually LP in the hand, holding the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the flopped straight flush.

EP was holding the T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

In the hand, UTG moved-in with his set of threes on the turn, I called and BB folded his jack high flush after thinking for about 10secs (was a great fold!)

The river was of no consequence but it turned out it was the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I think this hand is very interesting to think about from the perspective of both BB and UTG.

I obviously had nothing to think about [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Cheers