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#41
04-30-2005, 08:58 PM
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Re: The real story from ...
[ QUOTE ]
Poker is an entertainment industry. An online professional basically owns his own casino, and pays a rake to the site as 'rent'. He is providing a service. The goal of any entertainment business is to capture as much of peoples disposable income as possible. In many areas this is done by creating a desire for a product so that when the consumer aquires that product it fulfils the desire and makes them happy. When nike gets $100 for a pair of shoes they spent $1 making, they are making a profit by taking advantage of human psychology. [/ QUOTE ] This one takes the Nobel Prize for Denial. Poker pros EXPLOIT other people for a living... Just as drug dealers and pimps exploit others. To argue that Nike exploiting 3rd world workers... Justifies all exploitation... Is crazy. There are 2 kind of people in this world: (1) Those that make an honest dollar doing something productive... and (2) People that can think only in terms of exploiting those in group 1 By about age 30... Most people make a permanent decision... To be part of group 1 or group 2. rm+ 
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#42
04-30-2005, 10:27 PM
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Re: What percent of players actually win?
[ QUOTE ]
My parents think it is only a couple %... that the money all "flows" from the low limit fish, up to the low-middle normal players, up to the medium limit regulars, up to the high limit pros. [/ QUOTE ] How do your parents imagine that money from .5/1 games makes it into pockets of players in the 30/60 games?
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#43
04-30-2005, 11:43 PM
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Re: What percent of players actually win?
Seems like I had read ~15% of all people who play are long-term winners, but I can't find the quote (flipped through a few books). Given the number of people logging on and 'trying it out' for a short period of time, that number has to be lower as I remember this from a book before the Internet rush...
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#44
05-02-2005, 09:09 PM
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Re: The real story from ...
[ QUOTE ]
This one takes the Nobel Prize for Denial. Poker pros EXPLOIT other people for a living... Just as drug dealers and pimps exploit others. To argue that Nike exploiting 3rd world workers... Justifies all exploitation... Is crazy. There are 2 kind of people in this world: (1) Those that make an honest dollar doing something productive... and (2) People that can think only in terms of exploiting those in group 1 By about age 30... Most people make a permanent decision... To be part of group 1 or group 2. rm+ [/ QUOTE ] I said nothing about nike exploiting their workers. The point I was trying to make was that any sort of profit that is made, is made through the 'exploitation' of the consumers desire for your product. Should businesses decide how much they need to survive and never charge more than that? The goal of a business is to make as much profit as possible. People spend money that they cant afford to spend on lots of garbage. Poker is one of them. There is nothing wrong with responsible gambling, or making money from responsible gamblers in a fair competition. Are credit card companies 'exploiting' people who cannot handle their finances? Are liquer stores 'exploiting' Alcoholics? There are tons of businesses that 'exploit' the consumer. Why should a professional poker player feel like he is exploiting anyone. Would this conversation be any different if we were talking about competitive chess? People like to compete, they like to compete for money, and the money brings the best competition.
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#46
05-05-2005, 09:19 AM
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Re: What percent of players actually win?
I think its a bit of a misnomer to put a true percentage on it. If you can find 9 other players who are worse than you, you will profit. Some ppl may easily be able to take down 2BB at 1/2, but be a losing player at 5/10. My guess would be that the most important skill at making it at poker, is table selection. Knowing when you are at a table that you cant beat, and being able to get up and leave.
My estimate would be 10-15% of players are long term winners. Some may make it online, and others may be able to make it in the really soft real life games.
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#47
05-05-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: What percent of players actually win?
[ QUOTE ]
When I first started poker, I remember reading a post Sklansky made on RGP stating that the percentage of winning players is roughly 10%. Now this percentage also coinsides with other so called "money-make-money" professions such as day trading. Heck, Stats Canada (sorry I don't know about the US) reports that 1/10 businesses fail their first year, much less keep up profit margins enough to sustain operations. Lawrence [/ QUOTE ] This is a great answer. All "zero sum game" and "risk arbitrage" type business opportunities... Become progressively more efficient... As talented people move in... Resulting in an end stage... Of 10% winners... and 90% losers. Online poker may still be 15-20% winners... But it will get tougher because... (1) More talented players moving in every day. (2) The poker sites will find a ways to keep more money. Eventually... A 10% winner 90% loser equilibrium. Poker is no different than any other zero sum game. rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#48
05-05-2005, 03:31 PM
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Re: What percent of players actually win?
[ QUOTE ]
(2) The poker sites will find a ways to keep more money. [/ QUOTE ] I have to disagree there as the industry is getting more competitive every day because of the large margins it currently has. I think the margins are going to shrink in the future either through reduced rake or more bonuses and promotions.
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#49
05-05-2005, 04:26 PM
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Re: What percent of players actually win?
Very good point.
In the short term... There is an ongoing battle for market share... And excellent terms for good players. But once a company like Party raises a billion via IPO... They will methodically start buying out their competitors... And you will see consolidation... And an end to the gravy train. A fascinating thing about 2+2 for me... Is the TOTAL belief among players... That the "good times" will never end. THIS IS TYPICAL OF ALL MANIAS. But it will all tighten up... Like every other "arbitrage" opportunity. Right now... The winning players are in ** direct competition **... With the poker sites for the fish money. But the fish community will eventually realize that they can't win... And consolidated poker sites will focus on bottom line. It doesn't take much to erase a 1.0 BB/hour profit margin... This is a tiny margin. Bust usually follows boom... But 90% of the people believe boom is forever. The poker boom right now... Is like tech stocks in the late 90s. Fascinating... But just another mania. rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#50
05-05-2005, 04:44 PM
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Re: What percent of players actually win?
[ QUOTE ]
Very good point. In the short term... There is an ongoing battle for market share... And excellent terms for good players. But once a company like Party raises a billion via IPO... They will methodically start buying out their competitors... And you will see consolidation... And an end to the gravy train. rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] when they methodically purchse their compeition or just market to death the rest of america, are you assuming there aren't fish in the other ponds? holla
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