Am I hopeless?

[Harv72b]

Ignore the comments above regarding your PFR; it's a little low, but no terribly so. On those levels 8-9% is a good number to shoot for.

I suspect (but can't tell from the stats provided) that your problem lies in playing too passively postflop. Yes, you are also folding too often (typical weak/tight game--"weak" not meaning an insult, but rather that you fold too quickly when you don't catch big on the flop), but that alone should not be making you into a losing player with your VPIP. You aren't raising & betting often enough postflop, I'd stake money on that.

Just to echo what others have said...even using your overall win rate, you shouldn't be moving up from .50/1 if you're only beating it for 0.6 BB/100; not that it's a bad thing to be ahead, but that's an incredibly easy game and the lack of a strong, consistent win rate means that you have some big holes in your game that will hurt you badly in higher limits.

[badplayer]

Thank you all.

This is the sort of advice I was looking for. I have realized that I am weak-tight since reading SSH back in January. (I learned to play Poker reading WLLH). My PFR is a bit low. I am definitely raising more now than I used to. So you can imagine how passive I used to be.

What I don't understand is why my went to showdown % is too low. I read that it typically should be in the 28-32% range, which is where I am. Should my hands really be expected to hit the flop more than 30% of the time?

If I have 65s on a KT9 flop with four players, is there any reason for me to continue?

What about J9 on a flop of AK5?

What about K6s on a flop of AJ6 rainbow? (This one I find very hard to play.)

The past few months have a blur of these types of hands. Meanwhile, I'll push hard with JJ, flop a set, and get beaten by a higher set. Or with KQ, get top pair of queens only to be shown AQ. Also had many flush draws that never made it.

I'm not saying it's all just bad luck. I know I have MANY leaks and should not have moved up to $1/2 and $2/4 so prematurely. I do play way too passively after the flop, I suppose out of fear of being beat. This is something I know I'll have to overcome before moving up permanently.

Anyways, thanks again.

[Saint_D]

Based on your stats for .5/1 you should be a winning about 1+bb/100. I think you should stick to that limit, and work on playing more aggressively. Learn to use pot equity to understand when to bet. Just like you use pot odds to understand when to call.

Your stats are pretty solid for .5/1 in fact. I think you are far from crushing the game. On the other hand, your stats can lie a lot. You might want to find a coach to send your hand histories to to give you some advice.

Go to the micro-limit and post that last hand that gave you trouble. See what people say. More importantly take Grunchan's challenge to post responses to 5 hands a day there without looking at what other people said first.

Also try uploading your hand history to pokergrader and see if it says "bad luck." [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]


GL

-D

P.S. Poker grader says I should have a postive win rate, but that I have been somewhat lucky.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
What I don't understand is why my went to showdown % is too low. I read that it typically should be in the 28-32% range, which is where I am. Should my hands really be expected to hit the flop more than 30% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not a big statistics/math kind of guy, but I think that it stands to reason that you will either flop a pair or better or hit a draw more than 30% of the time that you see a flop. Now, the levels you're playing at do come into play in this--on .50/1, you're often going to have 3- or more way pots and you're rarely going to see players bluffing at you, so your WTSD will probably be a bit lower than what's expected at higher limits. I don't have enough of a .50/1 database built up to really say if the number should be much lower than the 32-35 range that I'm used to, so perhaps I shouldn't have said anything. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I do think that 28% seems too low, and is probably indicative of folding too many borderline hands on the flop when you have the pot odds to continue.

[ QUOTE ]
If I have 65s on a KT9 flop with four players, is there any reason for me to continue?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you flopped a 4-flush, there's no reason to continue here.

[ QUOTE ]
What about J9 on a flop of AK5?

[/ QUOTE ]

See above.

[ QUOTE ]
What about K6s on a flop of AJ6 rainbow?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one of those hands that you earn your money on. As for whether or not to continue, it's all about pot odds. I would count you as having 4 outs to win here (I'm discounting 1 K because of the potential for a straight/better two pair). That would be 5 outs if you flopped one of your suit (I'm not counting the 1 card, backdoor straight because you're folding the turn if a T or Q comes and doesn't give you a flush draw). If you're getting good enough pot odds to continue, you should continue. How many opponents are in the hand and reads on what they might have also come into play, but on .50/1 you're rarely going to see a HU flop.

The bad beats do come, and they sometimes come in large bunches. That's obviously going to skew your win rate when it happens, particularly when you don't have a lot of prior hands built up to cushion the blow.

[Bizot]

I realize this is totally off topic but people playing for bonus's should seriously not even worry about their stats. Why bother? You are just playing for the bonus.

Just my opinion see above for statisical stuff.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

If you were winning less that 1BB/100 at $.50/1, and now you are losing 1BB/100, chances are that you are not a winning player. I don't mean to be harsh or unpleasant, but you must have HUGE holes in your game to be losing (or breaking even) at this level. For example, I'm concerned with how ofen you are likely folding winning hands. Could this be variance? Sure it could. Assume that it is not, however, and look for ways of fixing your game. It is broken.

Post some hands in the micro forum. Stay at $.50/1 and bonus whore a lot to keep yourself from going under. Aggression is great, but first master tight-weak play, then selectively add aggression. Read a lot. Study the game.

[pokerjunky]

Although the sample size is a little small, I can tell by looking at your stats that your a little too passive. For one, your PF raise should be about 8% or 9%. ATs, KJs, 99, these are all raises from any position. Are you 3 betting with TT-AA?

Another reason your PF raise is low is because you dont steal blinds often enough. IT should be at least 27%-33%. Hands like Axs, K7s, Q8s, J9s, 55, JT, A7o, are all raises when opening from late position or even late middle position.

Your W$WSF is also too low. It should be more like 34% at least. You should be betting middle pairs against a small number of opponents. If there's only one or two people in the hand besides you and they check to you, bet no matter what you have. Learn how to bluff at the right times, especially when the pot is shorthanded. Possible trips on the board is usually the best time to bluff. If the flop comes 88J, for example, and its shorthanded, check. If theres no action on the flop and the turn is a safe card such as a 3, bet. Odds are you'll take down the pot.