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#1
04-29-2005, 01:36 PM
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Statistics on BB/100
Does anyone know of any mathematical formula that can indicate the percentage probabilities of long term results if you have a known BB/100 figure?
For example, over a ten month period I played 198,000 hands online at 15-30 and won $55,800. Since then I have played 115,000 hands (in the same games, with similar opponents) and won less than $1,000. The first sequence indicates that my BB/100 is slightly less than 1. If this figure is accurate than what are the chances of playing such a huge number of subsequent hands and - essentially - breaking even? I suspect there is some method involving standard deviation that can give the answer but I don't know what it is. Any ideas? 
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#2
04-29-2005, 01:43 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
If you give me 10% of your winnings I will tell you how you can accurately forcast your winnings over the next 100K hands. This could be helpfull for long term financial planning. let me know!!!
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#3
04-29-2005, 02:32 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
elindauer has an application made for this:
http://www.ericlindauer.com/deploy/confidence.jnlp if you dont know what your standard deviation is, i believe you get it by going into position/misc stats and clicking more detail.
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#4
04-29-2005, 03:11 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
OK Many thanks - but what do I do with this jnlp file?
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#6
05-02-2005, 02:07 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
Check Out This Post
rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#7
05-02-2005, 03:49 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
I don't know, but I'd suggest that after 300,000 hands, if I were averaging 0.5BB/100, I'd spend more time looking for the leaks.
Rather than trying to figure out if either group is a statistical anomaly, why not try to analyze your play?
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#8
05-02-2005, 07:19 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
Mr. HandLob has asked a perfectly legitimate question.
If one follows my previous link... You can see Homer's very cool work... Which I plugged into Excel. Since I do not have all info for Mr. HandLob... I will use the following: Hours Played: (198,000)/65 = 3046 Win/Hour: $28.00 The next one is the hardest... Depends a lot on Aggression Factor... Everything depends on this number. Standard Deviation/Hour: 20.0 BB = $600 So assume you play another 3000 hours at the same tables. At confidence interval of 0.986... The lower/upper bounds are winning $0.14/hour and $55.86/hour. So there is a 1.4% chance or a 70 to 1 longshot... That Mr. HandLob could win $28.00/hour for 3,000 hours... And then break even for the next 3,000 hours. There are several possibilities in 2 groups: ONE (1) Homer's formula is wrong. (2) I did Homer's calculation incorrectly. (3) The SD I guessed at is wrong. (4) Mr. HandLob's data collection has been faulty. TWO (5) The $15/$30 game has gotten tougher... As young, talented players move up. (6) Mr. HandLob has endured a once in a lifetime unlucky streak. (7) Mr. HandLob is being targeted... And systematically cheated with one bad beat per 100 hands. Can I see your actual SD/100 in BBs or dollars... For the first 3,000 hands? Does someone care to comment... or confirm my results? rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#9
05-02-2005, 07:52 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
Any answer you get is going to assume that the difference between your two samples is only due to statistical noise. Even though you don't want to believe it, I think you should seriously consider that it may be due to differences in your play. It's very unlikely that you are playing exactly the same now as you were months ago. Without realizing it, you have likely made changes to your game that are hurting you. Have you started playing more hands? Making different sorts of moves postflop? Playing more tables at once or playing longer sessions? Has something been bothering you emotionally that may be affecting your game? I think you need to consider that you may be doing something differently before you assume that this is just luck.
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#10
05-02-2005, 09:51 PM
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Re: Statistics on BB/100
[ QUOTE ]
Any answer you get is going to assume that the difference between your two samples is only due to statistical noise. [/ QUOTE ] Please back up this statement. 3000 hours of play is a huge sample. How can you label a >3 standard deviation change in profits... "Due to statistical noise"? I see this kind of loose talk here all the time. (Now Mr. HandLob has "emotional problems"). At the very least... The $15/$30 game should be getting tougher every year... Perhaps enough to erase his 1.0 BB/hour profit margin. rm+ [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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