Introduction and question about pot equity. - Page 2

BoxLiquid · #11 04-25-2005, 01:43 AM

Nicely written Sknnyftn. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

elmitchbo · #12 04-25-2005, 12:19 PM

the previous post was good, but i thought i'd drop in a quick summation. pot odds help you decide to call a bet or not. pot equity helps you decide if you should bet out or raise for value. if you think you have a pot equity advatage then you want to see money going into the pot, thus raising and forcing others to call your bet is profitable for you.

Wrecker · #13 04-27-2005, 01:42 PM

Here is a hand I played last night which I believe dramatically illustrates Pot Equity Edge and its powerful effect on your bottom line when applied in the right situation.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
(4 players)

At this point I'm working w/approx. 11 outs and 3 callers. My Equity = 42% Edge = 42% - 25% = 17%. Its time to Max my EV.

UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (13.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

River: (21.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
YES !
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.25 BB

Now I watch my chat window for the "nh" "nice river" comments comming from the TC's.

pzhon · #14 04-27-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (13.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like the 3-bet. You are heads-up with about 11 outs (you can't expect aces to be outs, and you have to worry about the clubs that pair the board) and have almost no folding equity.

Wrecker · #15 04-27-2005, 07:00 PM

Thank you( I mean it) for the critque of my play at the turn. Fold equity is one of the items on my list to come to an understanding with. However at this stage of the hand the last concern I had was fold equity. It's correct that I couldn't count on all the "A" outs nor was I. For my particular temperment and tolerance to risk I felt due to the size of the pot folding to save one or two additional BB's was not an option. Aside from that my immediate goal was to maximize my EV. I can't think of a better spot to be in than heads up with 11 outs and that kind of risk/reward choice. That said I'm not professing that my poker education is anywhere near so complete that I feel I've demonstrated something profound here. My post was only meant to provide an easily understood practical illustration of how opportunities will present themselves to those who have taken the time and trouble to do more than just punch the call button and curse the jerk who just relieved them of a considerable portion of their stack.javascript:void(0)
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

biscuitman · #16 04-28-2005, 09:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
However at this stage of the hand the last concern I had was fold equity. It's correct that I couldn't count on all the "A" outs nor was I. For my particular temperment and tolerance to risk I felt due to the size of the pot folding to save one or two additional BB's was not an option. Aside from that my immediate goal was to maximize my EV. I can't think of a better spot to be in than heads up with 11 outs and that kind of risk/reward choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two points -

o I think you misunderstand what is meant by fold equity here. The term is refering to the extra equity you get from occasions when villain folds - not you. In this case there is virtually no chance of villain folding hence you have little or no fold equity

o Secondly, my understanding of pot equity is that you applied it correctly on the flop as you're pot equity was larger then the pot split between all those still in the hand (ie 25%). However on the turn you have to consider your pot equity against 50% as there are only two of you left in the hand. As you're equity is less than 50% you should not raise. You then move on to consider calling/folding. Do you have pot odds to call the raise ? Obviously you do so calling is correct. You hit you're flush on the river and [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] all round.

I've only just got my head around these equity concepts so I am happy to be corrected.

binions · #17 04-28-2005, 09:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However at this stage of the hand the last concern I had was fold equity. It's correct that I couldn't count on all the "A" outs nor was I. For my particular temperment and tolerance to risk I felt due to the size of the pot folding to save one or two additional BB's was not an option. Aside from that my immediate goal was to maximize my EV. I can't think of a better spot to be in than heads up with 11 outs and that kind of risk/reward choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two points -

o I think you misunderstand what is meant by fold equity here. The term is refering to the extra equity you get from occasions when villain folds - not you. In this case there is virtually no chance of villain folding hence you have little or no fold equity

o Secondly, my understanding of pot equity is that you applied it correctly on the flop as you're pot equity was larger then the pot split between all those still in the hand (ie 25%). However on the turn you have to consider your pot equity against 50% as there are only two of you left in the hand. As you're equity is less than 50% you should not raise. You then move on to consider calling/folding. Do you have pot odds to call the raise ? Obviously you do so calling is correct. You hit you're flush on the river and [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] all round.

I've only just got my head around these equity concepts so I am happy to be corrected.

[/ QUOTE ]

Biscuitman is correct. Wrecker had 10 nut outs, plus maybe a couple more if the foe did not have a set, plus maybe a couple more if the Ace was live. Heads up on the turn, Wrecker had ~25% chance to win the hand, but is contributing 50% of the money on that round. Every extra dollar that goes in on the turn is a loser for Wrecker. He should not have 3 bet for value/EV reasons.

On the other hand, his check-raise on the flop was correct, as was his analysis for why he raised. He was putting in 25% of the money, but had 40+% chance to win.

Wrecker · #18 04-28-2005, 12:50 PM

Thanks guys. Having just cleared the starting gate so to speak in an effort to get a more complete understanding on what the hell I'm doing and why, I consider myself to be fortunate to receive such seasoned and thoughtful critques. Of course there dead on accurate. I've gained the equivalent of at least a week of focused study on these subjects and I'm encouraged to know expert help is so readily available on this forum. Being a bit senior in the age department absorbing and applying new concepts does not come as easy as it used to, so I'm really surprised and grateful when I stumbled into help such as this. To borrow from "Dirty Harry" - You folks have made my day.http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/im...cons/smile.gif
smile

Thanks Wrecker

Rosencrantz1 · #19 04-29-2005, 11:32 AM

I definitely recommend Ed Miller's new book GSIH. He does a very good job of explaining pot equity. He also discusses pot odds.

Since I'm very new to these concepts as well, I welcome any corrections/additions to the explanation I will now (try to) give:

Pot Equity refers to the amount of the pot ON AVERAGE that you will win under the given circumstances. In other words, if you are drawing to the nut flush and no other hand is out that would beat the nut flush (or, to be fair, ALMOST no other hand), you can say that ON AVERAGE you will win 1 in 3 times. That means that, ON AVERAGE, you are winning 1/3 of the pot in each of these situations. If you are out against four players then the three of them will win 2/3 of the time, while you win a third. Since the three of them are 'sharing' the 2/3 of the time they win, you have better-than-average pot equity. If two of those four fold on the next betting round, your pot equity is now lower than average because while you will still win about 1/3 of the time, the lone other player will now win 2/3 of the time (this assuming that you missing the flush means you will lose the hand. In practice, you may win a few of the hands even when you miss the flush -- e.g., your opponent also missed the flush but shows you down -- so the numbers are only approximate)

Pot odds are used to specifically make judgements about draws, in particular WEAK draws (so says Ed). If you have 5 outs to the probable best hand, you should be getting at least break-even odds from the pot in order to call. To rephrase, you don't want to chase small pots with long shots, only big pots.

You would use pot odds to help you figure out your pot equity, but they are not really the same thing.

If anyone has corrections/additions, please post. (if this seems right-on, though, let me know too because I need some feedback on my learning!)