Annoyed with AKs, assume the line on the river is not fold

[Chris Dow]

The river bet comes from the player who LRR'ed preflop a few hands ago. Let's assume for our discussion that on the river you have the nuts vs the bet. What is your play and why?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>

[chief444]

I guess if you think there's that good of a chance you have CO beat it makes sense to knock out the SB if possible just in case he feels like overcalling with a little pair.

I'm not sure I like the turn bet here.

[Chris Dow]

Chief,

Do you have estimates on the ranges I need to consider before deciding on if I should fold, call, or raise after I've determined that I am beating the bet, and don't know if I'm beating the player in the blinds? Like, how often does the player in the blind need to fold to two cold? How often do you think he generally will? In the heat of the moment I found myself extremely lacking in this exact situation as far as the tools to analyze it go. All I know is that my BS meter went off the charts, but I couldn't figure out what that meant I should do (despite the title of the post, even though the bet can be total bs I recognize that fold might be the move anyway depending on what and when and if the player in the blinds will fold)

[chief444]

Generally speaking Chris, I may never in my life make a raise like this at 2/4 just because the average player is so loose and so bad that they'll probably call even with something like 33 whether you raise or not. OK, maybe 33 folds, but not many better hands are folding. Same goes for CO...he's calling with anything that beats you almost always. So the chances that 1) you are ahead of CO AND 2) you are behind SB AND 3) SB folds a better hand seem pretty slim. Now if you've seen CO make a lot of odd bets like this then you may want to just call. If you think you're ahead of each of them 1/3 of the time then you're call will be just barely profitable. But I think a raise here is probably not. Just my opinion. I generally leave plays like this for more thinking opponents who are actually capable of laying down a hand.

As far as hand ranges...again at 2/4...72 - AA and any in between really wouldn't shock me here.

[Chris Dow]

Yeah, well the unimportant results are that I completely overloaded but knew I could beat the bettor so I just called (I think many would agree that I can't take 20 seconds and then come out with a raise, I didn't have the time to think it through to make a raise), the player in the blinds overcalled and wins the pot. I don't even think a raise would drive him off of his particular hand, although concievably there might be some hands he'd muck. So while call probably isn't too bad, and fold is probably no good since I can be beating both, raise has merits sometimes... although I'm tending toward agreeing with you chief, I feel kinda like I can just call anyway, because if the player in the blinds is beating me he's probably gonna call one or two. So yeah, tried to get some input because I couldn't analyze the situation at the time, thx.

[ckessel]

At 2/4 value bets work, but bluffs really don't. Against 1 or 2 callers I might be the turn here, but at 2/4 the odds of being called down are so good that much of the time I just check/fold at this point.

Depends a bit on the player of course. I'll tend to bet the turn more if the guy I'm against raised preflop as he may have very well missed the flop too. In this case you've got a zillion weak limpers that probably have weak cards that caught the flop.

[Chris Dow]

While I understand the posts suggesting giving up on the turn, I must state that for me with my extreme level of aggression this turn bet has to be mandatory, to put it simply people stay around longer vs me so I get more value out of a turn bet like this than some (including the fact that it usually will set up a river check behind where I have some good equity). A final note is that the 9c is one of the very best turn cards for me and it was certainly (since it always is) a card specific bet.

[StellarWind]

The turn bet is bad. You are unlikely to have the best hand after three people call the flop. The turn nine is bad because it is in the limping zone. If none of your opponents had a pair on the flop, it is really likely that one of those six cards is a nine. Note that the nine is also connected to the straight draw cards seven and eight. 98 and 97 are likely hands for your opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
I must state that for me with my extreme level of aggression this turn bet has to be mandatory, to put it simply people stay around longer vs me so I get more value out of a turn bet like this than some

[/ QUOTE ]
You are using your overaggressive play as a rationale for further overaggressive play. That's irrational.

[ QUOTE ]
(including the fact that it usually will set up a river check behind where I have some good equity

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Yet you are certain the river bet shows nothing [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

The river action that comes to mind is fold. Despite the bombing, you still have two opponents, one betting into you and the other acting after you.

If I knew the bettor had a bust (how could I know that--some players never make a hand?) I would raise to drive out the player behind me unless he was a calling station. You are getting 11.5-1 that he will fold when he has a better hand. Note that I wouldn't expect a worse hand to overcall at all so I rarely lose a bet by raising the best hand.

[steamboatin]

I think this is very similar to an example in SSHE or some other poker book. The third person in the hand wins often enough to make it unprofitable to call or raise.