First Posted Hand - General Feedback

[Disconnected]

Not sure about the pre-flop raise with a PP that low, although there are already a lot of callers who will stick around, so you are getting the pot up nice if you do hit your set.

I wouldn't have called the flop. I would raise here to try knocking out UTG, and possibly buying myself a free card on the turn. If the pot had not been raised pre-flop, I probably would have folded the flop, barring any player reads.

[crumpentunt]

I think the flop bet means an ace closer to 70-80% of the time. Especially leading into the whole field (including the preflop raiser). And even if we are able to knock someone out with ace-rag.. It doesn't really matter how many people we knock out if UTG+2 has an ace.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop bet means an ace closer to 70-80% of the time.

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You don't think it is profitable in the long run to win this pot 20% of the time?

[davelin]

I think your pre-flop raise is pretty sexy [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[thesharpie]

Good preflop raise. Raise the flop.

[kenberman]

I think you should re-register as "Captain Grunch(can)".

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop bet means an ace closer to 70-80% of the time. Especially leading into the whole field (including the preflop raiser). And even if we are able to knock someone out with ace-rag.. It doesn't really matter how many people we knock out if UTG+2 has an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lets say that UTG+2 has an A 80% of the time. Lets also say that UTG+2 will always 3-bet with an A, and that we will always fold to a flop 3-bet. Lets also assume if we are not 3-bet, that UTG+2 does not have an A and we always pick up the pot, with an extra 4BB's in it (UTG+2 calls your raise then calls turn and river bets)

8 times we lose 1BB = (8BB)
2 times we win 10.5BB's with an investment of 3BB's = 21BB-3BB = 18BB

Obviously this is way over the actual EV numbers, but it should also be obvious that auto-mucking this hand on this flop with this type of action is just throwing away money.

[crumpentunt]

Hrmm... Let me do a little math. Let's assume that we will win this pot 20% of the time (Say we lose 75% of the time he has an ace and an extra 5% of the time he has overcards that hit of a draw that hits and beats us).

Let's also assume that our raise on the flop will get the pot heads up between us and UTG+2. One last assumption, after the raise on the flop, we can expect the action to go UTG+2 calls the raise, then check/calls to the river.

Right before our raise, there is 14SB in the pot, and we will be putting in an average of 2.5BB (including the flop raise and the subsequent action, it is only 2.5BB because there are time we may take a free turn card and other circumstances).

So overall, in the long run, we will be putting in 2.5BB to win a 12BB pot (7BB + 2.5BB + 2.5BB). So therefore, I'm guessing we would have the best hand 21% of the time for our play to be correct. (2.5/12 = 21%)

Hrmm.. I think the decision is pretty close. Doing a little math actually opens your eyes alot, but I feel that my calculations may be faulty and I am missing out on other surrounding info.

Any comments/constructive criticism would be helpful.

[wireMan]

Not checking the other replies:
Preflop - No raise with 7's, just limp in
Flop - I like just calling
Turn - I like the raise here
River - I like this

Overall I'd play it similar except for the preflop raise. Now to see what everyone else thinks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[dawade]

On a tight/passive table I consider raising with 7's, but otherwise I'm most likely just calling here. Getting 13-1 on the flop I like the call, but I also realize I could be behing to a straight if my 7 hits, but I also have 9 outs headed to the river if that is indeed the case.

River doesn't hurt you, unless you're up against higher set or a straight, you're ahead so I like the bet there. Nice hand.