What to do with a scary river.

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">I'm never quite sure what to do with these hands. Here's the situation: the table's an aquarium.

<font color="red">UTG</font> is LAP with 41% VPIP, 9% PFR and AvgAGG of about 1.6.

<font color="red">UTG+1</font> is SLPA with 20% VPIP, 4% PFR, and AvgAGG 3.62, mostly on the river (6).</font>

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Pokey is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

<font color="blue">Standard; this is not a table for finesse.</font>

Flop: (11 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

<font color="blue">My pot. Bet is for value</font>

Turn: (7 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

<font color="blue">I said MY POT, dammit. Bet is for value.</font>

River: (10 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pokey bets....

Final Pot: 16 BB

<font color="blue">Is this a "check-behind" situation, or a "bet for value" situation? Am I seeing monsters under the bed if I tremble a bit as I bet this? Should I be insta-betting, no worries? Should I be taking the free showdown? What's the story?

[ArturiusX]

I think worse hands will call here.

[CallMeIshmael]

You really have to bet this. You have a very strong hand, and it will be called by worse hands, A LOT.

Sadly, you will probably have to pay off a checkraise (especially from the postflop LAG)

[stillbr]

bet the river..being afraid of the flush and checking behind constantly in situations like this will hurt your winrate

[brettbrettr]

If you didn't bet this river I'd be almost as upset as I was earlier today when something completely unrelated to poker happened to me I won't tell you what.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
You really have to bet this. You have a very strong hand, and it will be called by worse hands, A LOT.

Sadly, you will probably have to pay off a checkraise (especially from the postflop LAG)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? (Okay, if this seals the case that I'm a nit, fine.)

[Pokey]

Here, brett -- some useful info.

[New001]

I don't know if there's a single person I'd ever fold to a check/raise on this river in this hand. If there is, I haven't played against him yet.

[KN0CKAH0MA]

with 2 players check-calling you down to the river with that flop, you have to figure 1 of the 2 was on a flush draw. with that said i don't think taking a free showdown here is a bad play, i do think losing 2 bets to a check raise when you figure 1 of the 2 probally hit their flush is a bad play.

[New001]

They could check/raise with two-pair just as often, if not more, than a made flush.