Set of Threes - Monster Pot

[MikeL]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands (with probabilities attached), call the initial $5 then reraise all in after my strong raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

On SSNL tables, I think you have to include, as possibilities:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT (bad, yes)

If the villian has FPS (fancy play syndrom), add:

Axs (Diamond flush draw) and maybe Kxs

If the villain is a total donkey, add:

AT, KT, QT, JT (you get the idea)


I am guessing from your postings that he had
the tens. Rest assured, you made a good call.
Feel justified in paying him off.

Regards,
Mike L.

[Bukem_]

His line reeks of a set of tens. That being said I still don't think you can find a fold here. It would take a ridiculously strong read here to fold this in a raised pot.

His line is a nice tricky line against a solid, thinking opponent when you have a strong draw.

Say you limp, villian raises, bb calls. flop something like q 7 4 and you have 68 with four to a flush. BB bets out meakly, you call, villain raises, bb folds, you go all in.

Your fold equity increases enough that it is a very profitable play since they fear the set much more than the semi-bluff.

[radioheadfan]

The villian is a tight aggressive player. He is not a donkey by any means. He has been playing well as far as I can tell.

So more hands that fall in the call-reraise all-in category?

[jonnyUCB]

With this read he has tens or (MAYBE) AKs. That is all, since any TAG would raise any other hand here. Though one would think he would reraise with tens and AKs as well. My actual read would be AKs 60%, TT 40% but may adjust depending on my observations-

could he raise in LP with tens? I see people limp in LP with AK, AQ and JJ periodically. Also under consideration should be his likelihood to slowplay big hands even with draw-ish boards. Would he consider AA a hand to slowplay? Hard to get this info but you've seen him play a bigpair hand already - does he tend to play it fast or slow?

Incidentally theres almost 0% chance im folding this hand unless hes one of the regulars at that level who I know to be absolute rocks. I've made one set-over-set laydown and that required a tremendous read and I still paid him off on two streets.

[cfb1739]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering his pre-flop betting, his flop re-raise looks like
scared aces (AA). This is the flop you were playing for. If
you don't like this flop, don't play little pairs; ever.

If he happens to have TT, then them's the breaks: reload.
Rinse/lather/repeat. Set over set hurts, but it is fairly
rare. Sets make money, play 'em hard.

Regards,
Mike L.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree more.

[sawseech]

do you think he has tens or not
make a decision and live with it there's nothing to think about here

[MikeL]

[ QUOTE ]
do you think he has tens or not
make a decision and live with it there's nothing to think about here

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. If you have such a great "He has TT" read, fold.
Otherwise, you've gotten the advice sought after. Sorry
if it wasn't to your taste.

Mike L.

[Siawyn]

You can't lay this down, or you should never, EVER call 6x raises with a small pair if you're going to fold when the flop comes T-high and you hit your set. Simple as that.

[radioheadfan]

I agree with the majority of the replies. Although I did find the call-reraise-all-in move very strange, and indicative of a possible TT, I did make the call fairly quickly. Just too hard to get away from a set, and I did indeed get shown the top set.

I didn't think this player would be capable of making this move with AKs, so I figured I was against AA, KK, or top set. Don't think I woulda been able live myself had I laid it down. Part of the reason I called is b/c I didn't think this player would make that strong raise with TT. I had mistakenly thought his raise meant aces or kings (since he had made the same move a couple rounds ago). Sht happens in poker, and I did reload and proceed to recover from the set over set shock.

Thanks for the replies.