Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)

[tpir90036]

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I despise calculators and all forms of programs. These were my thoughts:

Ignore KK
6 AA, we win 1.2
8 AK, we win 5 and a bit

6.2 + a bit < 7


Plus even it was up to 8 I would still fold, I have a very very hard time believing anyone does this with AK as much as AA.

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how do you get 7 as the breakeven point?

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How did he get 1.2 and 5 to begin with? I'm [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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he ignored KK... which leave us with 8+6=14 hands to contend with. It's even money 100BBs:100BBs so we need to have 7 or more "wins" to make it a call.

6 AA * 0.18 (chance of beating AA) = 1.2 wins
8 AK * 0.65 chance of beating AK ( ) = 5-ish wins

6.2 wins out of 14 is not above break-even. It's just a different way of looking at equity since we aren't dividing by the number of possible hands and we know we need about 50/50.

[ML4L]

Hey all,

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I despise calculators and all forms of programs. These were my thoughts:

Ignore KK
6 AA, we win 1.2
8 AK, we win 5 and a bit

6.2 + a bit < 7

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This is the part that I agreed with.

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Plus even it was up to 8 I would still fold, I have a very very hard time believing anyone does this with AK as much as AA.

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This is not. The situation was hypothetical. You just assume that this player does this with AA/KK/AK every time he gets them.

ML4L

[Siawyn]

Fold.

[Siawyn]

My quick and dirty assessment was the 6 times he had AA at 80% win rate was enough to offset the 8 times he had AK and we had a 70% winrate. I ignored the KK vs KK.

I worked the math in my head and came up with roughly 48% equity. (.20*6)AA+(.70*8)AK+(.50*1)KK divided by 15. It was actually closer than I thought it was, I thought it might be more like 40-45%.

Great example though, I posed it to some people here at work who play and they all said easy call no question. They were surprised to see the math.

From that I posed them a new question, I assumed that UTG accidentally exposed one of his cards as a king, so he could only have KK or AK. The difference is now you have QQ. Call or fold... they got this one right thanks to the previous example. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[BigEndian]

Call.

- Jim

[schwza]

fold.... there are 6 AA, 8 AK, 1 KK.

ok, i now realized i took KK v AK as 55-45, thus blowing the calcuation. still a fold though [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Richie Rich]

Fold.

[Richie Rich]

If villian has AA, then you're roughly 82/18 underdog. And I've seen enough poker showdowns on TV to have KK v. AK memorized...it's 70/30. When you multiply the number of possible AA combos & AK combos with their respective probabilities of winning, I think the most +EV move with KK in this spot is a (reluctant) fold.

Interested in what others had to say.

[shag]

call

[Komodo]

Close fold. But I cheated a bit since i used pokerstove.
Bigger fold if you include the rake.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.7071 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-KK, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 47.2929 % [ 00.44 00.04 ] { KK }