Finding folds...

BreakEvenPlayer · #1 04-26-2005, 05:20 AM

Looking into PokerTracker lately and trying to find folds. I go to showdown a ton and that's a beautiful thing, but I could stand to shave a point or two off my WtSD.

Villain is loose, medium agg... In this situation it seems like I am going to see a flush or some other weirdly played 2-pair or set a VERY high percentage of the time.

Who folds this river? Is a river check feasible?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, Button checks.

Total whiff on flop check-raise.

Turn: (2 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP folds, Button folds.

River: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

billyjex · #2 04-26-2005, 05:27 AM

I think you will win this pot more than 1 in 7 times to make a call correct.

Checking the river is weak.

BreakEvenPlayer · #3 04-26-2005, 05:32 AM

There are quite a few busted draws (not to mention made draws)... and players at this level bluff rivers a large percentage of the time when checked to. I think a check is worth considering here.

vinnox · #4 04-26-2005, 05:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you will win this pot more than 1 in 7 times to make a call correct.

Checking the river is weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about checking the river to induce a bluff? Hero hasn't shown much strength, and it looks like a good scare card for a medium aggro player to bluff at.

billyjex · #5 04-26-2005, 05:36 AM

I guess I didn't really consider that. I was more scared of a Q, 5 or medium pocket that thought it was good on the turn to call down checking the river through.

It's close?

BreakEvenPlayer · #6 04-26-2005, 05:46 AM

It also seems like many hands I am betting for value against are going to bet when I check to them any way. The only hands I see this guy checking on the river are x3 and x2 hands and he probably will bet many of those.