Big Stack on the bubble

[Sluss]

Pokerroom 100+8 Sunday night. Don't have the hand history.

Started with 400 down to 41. 40 is the money.
400/800 no Ante
UTG (16,300)
UTG+1 (5,400)
MP (1,200)
MP+1 (6,000)
CO+1 (8,000)
CO (10,000)
Button (18,000)
HERO (34,700)
BB (16, 250)

UTG raises to 3,400, 6 folds to HERO in SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero's move?

Some backround. When I cam to this table I had 13,000 and there were 55 left. I've raised 2,3 and sometimes 4x an orbit for the last 15 orbits. The only hand I have shown was a 99 in the BB when a shorty pushed into me. This table has been rock tight and most of these guys have been counting down the people getting knocked out. UTG has raised this much about every other orbit and taken down the blinds. He was at about 18,000 when I showed up.

[schwza]

looks like an easy push.

[billyjex]

Push.

UTG is probably scared to bust as well. You can bully him easily.

[Jax_Grinder]

AA/KK does not come into this pot for 4+ x the BB. He doesn't want callers, but he left himself a way out if someone comes over the top.

If this was live I'm pushing in so fast I probably break my wrist. Online, I just slide that little button to the right and type "all in, beeotch" into the chat window. Seriously. Push.

[StogeyMike]

I think you push. You are only behind to AA and KK, and with those hands villian would not have discouraged future action with such a large raise. You are probably 80:20 to his lower pair, and even if you lose your stack remains healthy.

[tiger7210]

Am i the only person who flat calls here and plays poker on the flop? Maybe I tend to give an UTG raise too much respect but I don't mind calling with QQ's and getting more chips out of opponent on later streets when I'm fairly certain I'm ahead.

This to me looks like a great opportunity to build your stack with a well disguised hand as well as save some chips if you're beat

If villain holds a middle pair 99's- JJ's he may fold to your all in PF but may push into you on a board full of rags.

I think I like just calling here and applying the pressure later in the hnad when he has more chips invested.

[billyjex]

I wouldn't play it like that. We are on the bubble and I want to scare UTG from playing the hand; I'd be happy w/ his chips and the blinds.

If we call and the flop has an A or K, he is now comfortable if he has AK/AQ/KQ, etc. If we put him all in PF, he won't want to gamble against the big stack.

[StogeyMike]

First of all, villain probably folds to the all-in bet which virtually guarantees Hero 4000 chips. That's the bird in the hand.

Even though I do think I'm a 4-1 favorite here, it could be as close as 2-1 if villain is raising AXs and I'm really not too eager to let him see a flop. If overcards or a coordinated board hits then I'm in a tough spot on the bubble, which is exactly what I don't want.

Perhaps my thinking is wrong, but pushing still seems correct to me.

[Sluss]

I pushed for all of the reasons above. UTG insta-calls and turns over AA.

At this point I have only hit two hands the whole tourney, yet I am the tourney chip leader. I have been stealing and re-stealing all of my pots.

I thought this decision was fine and later ended up busting out in 18th without ever seeing another hand. Then afterwords I thought about this quote from a Daniel Negreanu Card Player article:

There is one valuable lesson I learned from something John Juanda once said that I’m passing on to you. John once explained that it’s important to protect a big stack. Too many people are preoccupied with knocking players out, figuring they can afford it, but it’s simply more important not to risk losing a large lead, because it’s an advantage you can exploit with much less risk. In other words, with that many chips, you don’t have to take the worst of it if the situation doesn’t warrant it. Let the short stacks fight for position while you pick up the scraps along the way.

Does anyone else think it would have been a good idea to toss this and keep stealing since that has been so successful? I might just be looking at it as I would have rolled to the final table with the big stack. Instead I was left fighting just when everyone was ready to fight (post bubble). Maybe a different way to look at it.

[locutus2002]

I would raise to about 10K here.
Your going to have to go down with the hand if he has AA or KK, but you want to give him a chance to play if he has aq or aj.
Given your history of raising he's going to call a push w/ ak anyhow.