Interesting stats

[Peter_rus]

My dude in a local Russian forum lives in America for a long time and play poker constantly last 10 or so years. He play live and online - he mixing it.

Though he play online 1 or rarely 2 tables simultaneously so in SH he has usually better reads than most multitablers. I found his stats amazing as i suspected that such high VPIP cannot be supported with such good winrate for any meaningfull amount of hands (15-20K hands). He also claims that additionally around the same amount of hands (30-40K)he played before had the similar results, but he had lost them due to some accidents with computer. So sample size is good enough to understand that he at least 2.5bb/100 winner in these games.

I defenitely thought that playing 1-2 table you can extract additional value by playing more hands but i can't imagine so far.

Below is screenshot of stats he has at 5/10 and 10/20 6 max games. Any thoughts?

[imitation]

The most interesting combination of statistics is the vpip/pfr. One would normally predict a loose "2p2" mould player would see a considerable increase in PFR as well. I predict alot of cold calling on the button and co(?). Perhaps alot of small suited cards, 1 gappers, etc. I bet his SD is quite high which means his sample size needs to be much larger.

[imported_excel]

Did you read my "winning player" post 50vpip pfr 40, 80K hands over 2bb/100 always 4 tabling.

These stats you posted support my argument that assuming all high vpip players will end up losers is wrong.

Have you got postional stats or any info on the hands he plays, raises, limps with,

Stats look good to me, I see no reason why they cant be sustained, giving he is 1 tabling,

[TStoneMBD]

in my opinion, 33k hands really isnt enough to consider these stats reliable. there will be terrible players who go on 33k hand stretches in which they average 4.5BB/100. granted, your friend is probably not a terrible player, but he certainly could be.

ive only been playing online for a short time, but after logging around 100k hands myself, its become apparent to me that 33k hands is practically nothing. ive gone on 33k stretches where my BB/100 was 4.5, and then 33k stretches where my BB/100 is 1.5.


however, im not entirely discreditting these stats. its definitely interesting to see that he has such a high vpip and is doing that well. however, unless hes working out of a database with 1million datamined hands, i really dont see how he can have reliable reads that could make playing so many hands profitable. sitting at a table with an unknown for an hour, watching him play every hand closely isnt enough information to start turning hands like J8o into profitability.

also, winning 1000BBs doesnt really impress me. i have seen people i know win absurd amounts of money online and i am certain that they are not winning players.

[krishanleong]

I think there is a very very good chance he is just running hot. The agression factor look unimpressive. He also steals infrequently and looks to overdefend his blinds. Nice results though. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Can you post the number of straights, flushes, and full houses. The % won for all three, the % won for one pair and two pair hands. This is all from the misc tab.

This is usually enough for me to see if someone is running well or not.

Krishan

[stripsqueez]

see 44% of the flops and win close to 40% - maybe i'm just not winning enough pots but seems to me either he has run well or played a lot of 2/3 handed

he defends his blinds more than most - i think you can do that if you know whats going on post flop - i also think plenty looser pre-flop than many ascribe to is optimal in lots of games

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a very very good chance he is just running hot. The agression factor look unimpressive. He also steals infrequently and looks to overdefend his blinds. Nice results though. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Can you post the number of straights, flushes, and full houses. The % won for all three, the % won for one pair and two pair hands. This is all from the misc tab.

This is usually enough for me to see if someone is running well or not.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Krishan,

Can you give me an idea what stats in those areas would suggest someone is running hot or cold?

[Mr. Graff]

Krishan, what do you consider normal percentages for straights, flushes and full houses?

[krishanleong]

You get a straight, flush or full about once every 200 hands. (Actually a little less but the aproximation is fine) So for 20K hands you should have 100 of each. All premiums should win at least 80%. You one pair win % should be around 44% and two pair around 55%.

link

Krishan

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you post the number of straights, flushes, and full houses. The % won for all three, the % won for one pair and two pair hands. This is all from the misc tab.

[/ QUOTE ]
Krishan, I would like to hear more on how this is a reliable indicator of whether someone is running well or not. It seems to me that someone could make much stronger hands than usual but frequently run into just-better or just-worse hands, which would obviously have a great effect on winrate either way. Let me know what you think about this please.