Bad Fold? Call Down?

[ErrantNight]

you've never hit a 27 hand stretch where you've limped a lot and whiffed on every flop?

sure those stats are so extreme that even after 27 i'm almost positive he's a bad player... so i don't think folding is horrible... but still... i'm questioning it

[Pokey]

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you've never hit a 27 hand stretch where you've limped a lot and whiffed on every flop?

sure those stats are so extreme that even after 27 i'm almost positive he's a bad player... so i don't think folding is horrible... but still... i'm questioning it

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I'll give you that it's not a mathematical certainty that he's a donk. What I'm saying is that it's likely enough that I feel folding saves me money.

I'm looking for reasons to fold, and I've found a really good one. If someone is looking for reasons to call, I think that's not the most profitable strategy in the long run. Wishful thinking is what makes the donks give us money, after all -- we want to act LESS like them, not more.

[Harv72b]

If 27 hands isn't enough to accurately gauge his VPIP/PFR numbers (and it isn't), then it falls well short of giving an accurate picture of his postflop aggression. Unless I have seen enough of his hands at showdown to tell me otherwise, I'm still treating him like an unknown, which is why I'm calling down here.

TAGs folding an overpair to a turn 3-bet is what makes the LAGs money, don't forget. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] And Hero getting 7:1 to call down while closing the action on both streets means that he doesn't have to be right all that often.

[Pokey]

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If 27 hands isn't enough to accurately gauge his VPIP/PFR numbers (and it isn't), then it falls well short of giving an accurate picture of his postflop aggression.

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Look, what's the point of information if you're just going to throw it in the garbage anytime it disagrees with what you want to do? We don't always have 800 hands on our opponents. Everything we have says "donk," and I'm not going to go wishing myself into losing another two big bets because he MIGHT actually be a TAG who MIGHT have gotten good cards which MIGHT have been best played with calling.

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TAGs folding an overpair to a turn 3-bet is what makes the LAGs money, don't forget. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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If you think 0% PFR and 0.8 AvgAgg is most likely a LAG, I just have to disagree with you there.

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And Hero getting 7:1 to call down while closing the action on both streets means that he doesn't have to be right all that often.

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Look, you may be absolutely right. I'm in a really foul mood because I've been getting my ass kicked by donks all day, and I've been getting beaten up on the boards for it as well. Maybe I've just been playing "fit-or-fold" on the 2/4 tables too much. Maybe I've just seen too many donks reraise with miracle 2-outers on the turn or river lately. Maybe I'm still reeling from my fever. Whatever it is, I fold this one. If my judgement is off by a fraction of a bet, so be it.

[ErrantNight]

not to keep beating up on you...

but acknowledging you might be sacrificing small edges because through a combination of events you're essentially on tilt and feeling stubborn and/or want to feel more comfortable isn't right... you should stop playing and come back when you feel comfortable pushing your small edges.

frustration is part of it, and i have a temper and i get frustrated as well, so i appreciate your situation... but it doesn't justify your actions [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Pokey]

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but acknowledging you might be sacrificing small edges ...

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Operative word: "might." However, I find it unlikely. A signpost just three-bet a scary turn. That concerns me. A TAP just called one bet and two more on the turn. That also concerns me. UTG+1's behavior screams "QJ-straight": he bet the potential on the flop and pushed hard when he made good on the turn. MP3 has been skulking around all hand long, and he's tight enough that he's probably got something. Hero has ... an overpair. Not even the best overpair. On a coordinated board that another player (probable donk) has shown he likes on three separate betting occasions.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hero is in third, here, and if I'm right about the straight, hero is drawing completely, utterly dead. Even if the straight is NOT out there, you have to like one of your two opponents for a set with all this action. Hero can't trust ANY board pair to safely improve him without tripling up an opponent, so he's drawing to two outs, and even THOSE aren't winners if someone has a straight. The 15:1 odds don't warrant a call here, in my opinion.