Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Poker Discussion > Televised Poker
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #13  
Old 04-23-2005, 10:52 PM
dstyle dstyle is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: New York City
Posts: 8
Default Re: The Grinder--4 million chips gone in 20 minutes?

people do tend to lose their stack quite often in NLHE; however, people tend to not lose a quarter of the chips in play when the day is close to over and they're nearing the TV table within a few hands. The only comparable performance I can remember by a pro was when JDags lost all his chips quickly in USPC; however, those were more by bad beats then by making huge....let's call it semi-bluff (b/c 66 could easily have been good).
On Cardplayer, it stated that it was a raise by tuan, reraise by Grinder, and reraise by Habib before the all in move.
Basically, at best, Grinder can make Habib lay down AK, AQ and other race hands, or pairs 77-QQ (with QQ as the most borderline call). The problem is that out of three groups of players, Grinder can only make 1/3 groups fold hands like AK, QQ and JJ. (as i see it).
One group is ultra tight players with pretty good reads/sense for risk/reward, who maybe satellited in and just want to keep moving up in the standings to make more $ (survivors). Another group is players who aren't really that good, who think QQ and AK are monsters and can't fathom laying them down preflop. And a last group would be pros who are gunning for first, willing to take chances in order to get a huge chip stack.
The problem here is that I would classify Ivey, Habib and maybe Tuan in the last group, people willing to gamble who don't really care about an extra 100k by folding their way to the $, and don't care about being on TV. Grinder almost certainly knew Habib was an aggressive player, but by the same token, Habib should know that the Grinder has a relatively tight image---thus I think Habib's reraise signals JJ-AA. I would think that given Habib's stack, and the fact that Le could have about anything (AA, KK), Habib would flat call with AK and try to outplay after the flop IMO. Also, Grinder's all in raise may "signal" Aces, but I think the huge reraise signals a smaller pair, or basically a bluff (at best KK), b/c AA isn't scared to take a flop heads up there, and wouldnt want to necessarily scare the action away from all hands except AK, KK and QQ.
Simply put, I think it was a horrible play for situation, and by the fact that if Grinder is right in that Habib reraised with AK, AQ or another hand he can let go of, the Grinder increases his chips to 5+million (still only 1.5 mill over Ivey), and if he's wrong, he's either 80/20 underdog to overpair, or in a race where he'd either be a big chip leader (like Habib is now), or close to getting knocked out (like he ended up).
In the end, you need to have a very, very strong read in order to even consider that as the correct play.
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:34 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.