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#21
04-23-2005, 04:55 PM
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Re: Raise and fold pre-flop
You are getting about 7:1 to call here. I think this is enough, even if you only play when you flop a money making hand. Yeah sometimes you will lose when you flop a straight, but if you played the hand an infinate number of times when you flop broadway, you will come out ahead (and this is just counting the money that goes in postflop). You will flop...
Straight: .33% Flush: .84% Flush draw: 10.94% Split 2-pair: 2.02% House or Quads: .10% Total = 14.23% = ~6:1 against = Easy call Brad 
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#22
04-23-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: Raise and fold pre-flop
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting about 7:1 to call here. I think this is enough, even if you only play when you flop a money making hand. Yeah sometimes you will lose when you flop a straight, but if you played the hand an infinate number of times when you flop broadway, you will come out ahead (and this is just counting the money that goes in postflop). You will flop... Straight: .33% Flush: .84% Flush draw: 10.94% Split 2-pair: 2.02% House or Quads: .10% Total = 14.23% = ~6:1 against = Easy call Brad [/ QUOTE ] Apparently our opponents have broadway cards. I'm wondering how much that might cut into the two-pair, house, and straight percentages that you mention. I don't know the answer. I'm just asking. Edit: Also, aren't there going to be times when we flop a draw like a gutshot or gutshot plus backdoor flush that will cost us money postflop, because the pot's so big that we end up chasing intially? Also, I think flopping a hand like TPTK might cost us at least a little postflop too. The pot's big enough that it's not like we're going to just check-fold it and toss a hand that potentially has five outs and has some small chance of being the best hand.
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#24
04-23-2005, 05:16 PM
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Re: Raise and fold pre-flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You are getting about 7:1 to call here. I think this is enough, even if you only play when you flop a money making hand. Yeah sometimes you will lose when you flop a straight, but if you played the hand an infinate number of times when you flop broadway, you will come out ahead (and this is just counting the money that goes in postflop). You will flop... Straight: .33% Flush: .84% Flush draw: 10.94% Split 2-pair: 2.02% House or Quads: .10% Total = 14.23% = ~6:1 against = Easy call Brad [/ QUOTE ] Apparently our opponents have broadway cards. I'm wondering how much that might cut into the two-pair, house, and straight percentages that you mention. I don't know the answer. I'm just asking. [/ QUOTE ] Right. So let's say that one guy flips up AA and another guy flips JJ (there by killing all hope of winning with 2-pair). The odds for flopping a flush draw would be... p = 11*10*35*3 / 46*45*44 = 12.7% Flush = 11*10*9 / 46*45*44 = 1.1% Straight = 63*6 / 46*45*44 = .42% (it is 63*6 to account for the one straight that will give us a royal flush) Total = 14.22% = 6:1 against Nick - The point of it is that it is correct to call, even if you only play for the hands I listed in the other post. It is fit or fold poker, but it is +EV to call here even if you are playing for a doozy. So if the flop comes AA2 you can OPEN FOLD and still make money by playing for the above hands (2-pair, straight, flush, flush draw, house or quads). Trips might not be a money making hand because if someone has AK or AQ more then ~ 45% of the time we will be sucking wind.
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#26
04-23-2005, 05:29 PM
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Re: Raise and fold pre-flop
[ QUOTE ]
Right. So let's say that one guy flips up AA and another guy flips JJ (there by killing all hope of winning with 2-pair). The odds for flopping a flush draw would be... p = 11*10*35*3 / 46*45*44 = 12.7% Flush = 11*10*9 / 46*45*44 = 1.1% Straight = 63*6 / 46*45*44 = .42% (it is 63*6 to account for the one straight that will give us a royal flush) Total = 14.22% = 6:1 against [/ QUOTE ] I threw another question/concern in an edit while you were responding, which went like this: "Also, aren't there going to be times when we flop a draw like a gutshot or gutshot plus backdoor flush that will cost us money postflop, because the pot's so big that we end up chasing intially? "Also, I think flopping a hand like TPTK might cost us at least a little postflop too. The pot's big enough that it's not like we're going to just check-fold it and toss a hand that potentially has five outs and has some small chance of being the best hand." Anyway, I want to call with my AJs, and I probably would. So I would in fact prefer for doing so not to be a mistake. Edit: Hmm. I see that you have addressed this concern (in an edit of your own, I believe): [ QUOTE ] The point of it is that it is correct to call, even if you only play for the hands I listed in the other post. It is fit or fold poker, but it is +EV to call here even if you are playing for a doozy. So if the flop comes AA2 you can OPEN FOLD and still make money by playing for the above hands (2-pair, straight, flush, flush draw, house or quads). Trips might not be a money making hand because if someone has AK or AQ more then ~ 45% of the time we will be sucking wind. [/ QUOTE ]
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#28
04-23-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: Raise and fold pre-flop
[ QUOTE ]
Folding cannot be bad. There is a really good chance that both your overcards are dominated and you cannot win with less than two pair. Those of you wearing lobster bibs and hoping for a flush need to take another look at your opponents. These guys are unlikely to lose their way and give you an undeserved payday. [/ QUOTE ] This was my thinking. Likelihood of domination is huge based on my reads of these guys so I'm really putting in 2 bets to flop a four flush. And even then I could loose a lot of money trying to hit the thing being OOP.
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