#1
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Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
Over halfway through $11 pot limit holdem tournament. 71 players left from 205 entries. I have $2600 which is slightly below average. Blinds are 100-200. UTG raises one unit to 400. I have pocket kings and raise the pot from 2UTG making it 1500 to go. Player in small blind with over 6000 in chips reraises the pot. Initial raiser folds. I am 99% sure he has aces. Should I call my last 1100? My share of the pot would be $5600 before I put in my last $1100.
Results: I called, he did have the aces and I lost. I think I was swayed by the pot total. The way pokerstars does it, they don't tell you the portion you are eligible for. I was thinking the pot was $8200 when I called. |
#2
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Re: Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
If I was 99% sure then I would fold.
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#3
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Re: Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
What are the odds of my underpair winning? I think it is almost 6-1, so my call is not too horrible from an EV stance right? Check my math 2/48,2/47,2/46,2/45,2/44. Over 5 cards doesn't that come to 10/46 times I will hit my set. Just over 20% of the time. So 80% of the times I hit my set, my opponent will also hit his set. A little more than 17% of the time I will beat his hand with a set. I'm thinking flushes, straights and quads are distant possibilities in the calculation. I am not very comfortable with statistics, so I could be very wrong in my assumptions.
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#4
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Re: Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
It is about 4.5 to 1.
I'd definitely call, and for a couple of reasons: 1. Online you can be up against QQ or AK (in a bigger tourney, he definitely has Aces..still very good read by you) 2. At this level, with 1100 left, you are going to be a short stack. 3. You are getting the odds in case he has AA. With the possibilities of this person poorly playing QQ and AK, i think that heightens your odds on the call even more. not quite to even money, but i'd say 2.5 to 1 dog. Just bad luck running into AA when you have KK. I've had it twice late in tourneys, not a lot of fun. SD |
#5
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Re: Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
If you were "99%" sure your oppenent had AA would you call?
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#6
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Re: Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
no i would not.
and i believe you that you can, as you know how that player played. |
#7
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Re: Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
I think you ran into the wrong hand at the wrong time. Your odds are approximately 4.3-1 against depending on the suits involved. Based on pot odds and becoming pretty well crippled if you fold here,the answer is you should call. In a live game i could fold, but online i think you have to call as you cannot be 99% certain he has aces unless you have seen nothing less then aces several or more times from this player in this situation.
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#8
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Re: Pokerstars Pot-limit situation
Another way to think about it: You're getting 4800:1100, which is about the odds of AA v/s KK, so by calling, you're basically freerolling on the chance to have misread him. If you are positive that the probability is realy above 99% (practically only possible if he flashes his cards), then you can fold. Otherwise you have to call and hope for the best.
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