QUESTION OF EV!

[hbgolfpro]

I played this hand last nite here in Los Angeles at Hollywood Park. The game is NLH....200 buy in....blinds of 3 and 5. UTG raises to 15....5 others call as do I on the button with JdTd. The BB then makes it 45 straight and we all call. 7 to the flop with a pot of appx. 315.

Flop is Qc 8d 4d

BB leads for 65....one VERY loose player calls the 65 and it is folded to me. I have picked up a gutshot to the nuts and a flush draw that I believe to be good if it comes. I know the BBs bet of 65 is a gutless bet with AK...and I am 99% certain the limper that called has nothing more than Queen little or even as bad as middle pair! So I rate my hand as having 12 outs twice....and possibly as many as 15. I feel that calling the 65 is absolutely incorrect and a nice raise would take at least half my stack of 350....so I push all in. I knew the BB would give it up and he did.... and I figured the limper would fold appx. 20% of the time to my big raise...however he called this time and showed T8 offsuit! Middle pair! So that gives me 15 outs twice.

Turn is 2h

River is Jc and I win with a pair of jacks.

My question involves this....when I moved in for 350 the limper called with his whole stack of 300 so basically I wagered 300 to win a pot of 445 and the callers 300. If he folds 100% of the time...assuming 100 trials....I win the pot of 445 100 times for a gain of 44,500. If he calls as he did....I am a 56-44 favorite on the flop....and after 100 trials I win 445 PLUS his 300 56 times for a gain of 41,720. I will lose my 300 bet 44 times for a loss of 13,200 ...and a total net of 28,520. My EV in the first scenario is 445...my EV in the second is 285. Thus when he calls he hurts me and lowers my EV...but my bet still has +EV. My question is would there have been a better way to play this hand? I surely cant fold! I also feel that calling is out of the question. That only leaves raising ....a semibluff raise I might add...but I feel my play was 100% correct. Thoughts?

[nopepper]

looks good to me!

[Delphin]

Nice read on the limper. Sounds like a profitable game to be playing in. Against a more reasonable player, I think this is still a good play in most situations. The limper will have a hand that missed here a good portion of the time, and the times that he's ahead you still usually have many outs. The worst case is something like AdQd, but even then you have 4 outs twice. I think between your fold equity and the large number of outs you have against many hands this is the best play.

[OatmealJoe]

Is the EV you are referring to asking about the bet, or the total hand? Assuming the limper always called, your analysis said you expected to win 285. Instead if you both check to the river, and you have a 56-44 advantage, you'd expect to win 249. So isn't the difference (36) the expected value of the bet, if called, which is basically just your 12% advantage times your bet (300)?

So I would say the EV of a 300 bet (and call) is +36. The EV of a 300 bet (and fold) is 445-249 = +196. Your total EV of your 300 bet is (36* =%CALL) + (196*%FOLD). So if he folds 1/2 the time the 300 bet would be 18 + 98 = +116 EV

If you were 100% certain you were ahead (i.e. 56-44), from an EV standpoint, isn't it generally best to get as much money in the pot as possible?

[hbgolfpro]

Something I forgot to mention...when the limper called my all in and showed middle pair....that told me I have the 15 outs twice and at that moment I believed that I was happy with his call. I figured that I am getting a call when I am a 56/44 favorite so I should be loving it. However I was mistaken! I did not want that call! When he called he lowered my EV and thus took money away from me. The alternative was for him to fold and thats what I should have been rooting for. At first glance it seems logical to want a call when you are the favorite....but in this case I was incorrect.

[hbgolfpro]

Furthermore....when I wagered 300 to win the 445 I gave him 775-300 odds....or roughly 2.6-1. Since he was only a 56-44 dog he correctly called and thus lowered my EV.

[Delphin]

[ QUOTE ]
Something I forgot to mention...when the limper called my all in and showed middle pair....that told me I have the 15 outs twice and at that moment I believed that I was happy with his call. I figured that I am getting a call when I am a 56/44 favorite so I should be loving it. However I was mistaken! I did not want that call! When he called he lowered my EV and thus took money away from me. The alternative was for him to fold and thats what I should have been rooting for. At first glance it seems logical to want a call when you are the favorite....but in this case I was incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are in a good spot here (+EV) whether he calls or not, which makes it a good play. The pot is already huge and the rest of his stack is small compared to the pot. This makes it very profitable to try and buy the pot, but also means that it is right for him to call here with a wider range of hands.

You are right that it is somewhat unintuitive that you don't want a call when you are a favorite, but that's just because 100% chance of dragging a big pot ends up being more than 56% of a slightly larger pot.

When you win you will be much happier that he called, and when you lose you will wish he folded. On average you would be happier with a fold than a call, but once you've pushed there isn't anything else you can do to encourage a fold.

If you had wanted a call, you would have bet less than all in. The all in was clearly the right play.

[joewatch]

You played it right. VNH