3-handed 25-50 hand RIVER PLAY DISCUSSION AND POLL

[JMP300z]

I might push if my image is right (usually is)...however I think the bet, fold to CR is really the best play for the above reasons. Even bad players generally dont call pushes with just the bare 5. Besides, I put him more on a 2 pair hand.

-JP

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
I might push if my image is right

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea about El D's image at this particular table. However, when I have observed his play he seems to be considerably tighter than a lot of the action-monkeys that frequent the game, hence my belief he folds to an all-in.

My observations could be extremely wrong however, please feel free to correct my perception Blue Mask.

[neon]

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if the guy plays bad enough, the goods (to him) could be a bare five.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first thought when a generic "bad" player called Diablo's CR on the turn was that he has a five, and three-handed, that's all he needs to go to the felt.

And that's why I voted for a push.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if the guy plays bad enough, the goods (to him) could be a bare five.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first thought when a generic "bad" player called Diablo's CR on the turn was that he has a five, and three-handed, that's all he needs to go to the felt.

And that's why I voted for a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, regardless of my relative tightness in the game, I think most "garden variety bad" players are not getting away from a five, period. And I definitely think many of them will be "tricky" and just call the turn raise with a five.

[turnipmonster]

this is basically what I thought as well, and why I don't like folding to a checkraise. although he can very well have a flush here I think, betting the turn with a picked up draw is nothing new.

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]


Yeah, regardless of my relative tightness in the game, I think most "garden variety bad" players are not getting away from a five, period. And I definitely think many of them will be "tricky" and just call the turn raise with a five.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with the 3 flush arriving?

Maybe I just think this because I semibluff flush draws oh about, every time.

-JP

[RunningSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
And I definitely think many of them will be "tricky" and just call the turn raise with a five.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think generic bad players would tend to overplay a bare 5 on the turn, rather than "get tricky" but obviously you have a better read on this specific opponent.

The bet of 100 and the call of the raise make it seem more likely he is on a draw of some sort. I think a set is unlikely given the flop check, so a flush draw is the only thing left.

One problem with betting is that you only have to be ahead like 30% of the time to make calling a river CR correct.

I would just check it through and lose to his flush or win against a hand that probably cant call a river bet.

[Rococo]

I haven't read any of the responses, but I'll give it a whirl.

The only hand that we are getting money out of on the river is a five. With two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s on board, I expect that most players, even bad ones, would have tried to get it all in on the turn out of position with the wheel. The only exception is if the bad player has 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and thinks that he is freerolling you. [In truth, the bad player should push the turn with a wheel and a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw because a third [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] may limit the amount that he can extract from a player holding a five if a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits on the river. He probably isn't thinking this far ahead, however.]

If the bad player was on a naked [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw and is trying to check raise, I obviously don't want to bet.

Although it isn't initially obvious, I think that I would check behind if I had time to think it through.

[theBruiser500]

i think a $650 value bet is much better than a push after some thought. on the turn this guy bet $100 and you raised to just $400, then a flush comes and you bet 2k, in his mind it's very possible you have a flush, if he calls he's playing for a split so he can definitly find that fold as opposed to $650 of guaraenteed value. another thing is he could very well have a flush, when he hits the flush on the river it's a great time for him to check/raise because almost everyone who has a 5 on this board will try to squeeze a value bet in, so with your 65 you might want to be looking to get away from your hand.

[xorbie]

I like both, but I think #2 certainly has its merits. The downside, of course, is losing all your money to a flush.

The upside is that I think it's actually easier for a bare 5 to take himself into a call, thinking that you are trying to represent a flush when all you have is a two pair or perhaps just a 5 yourself. After all, why would someone with a flush push here, right?