$55 early play - post flop question

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your thought process on this one. Against a lot of players it shuold be a pretty good possibility you are up against no hand. Also it helps that you have a ton of chips, as you aren't crippled if you are wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny that only you, Apathy, and I thought that this was a busted flush draw. I think Apathy said it best, "This leads me to call and hop(e) the villian didn't have the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]"

FWIW, if anyone cares. The results are in white somehwere in the post.

[EdgePort]

Tricky hiding spot.. Took me forever to find what he had.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Unarmed]

Once you check the river you have to call.
FWIW, I think the river check is the only option here, given stack sizes. (i.e.: you can't block this, but if you had bet 2/3 pot on flop and 1/2 pot on turn this becomes an option)

I'd rather let the clubs bluff it either way.

[tsevier]

I am thinking busted flush draw as well, the call-call from villain always screams flush draw to me.

With that said, why not bet a moderate amount (no idea what that would be, will leave that to smarter minds) on the river? If you check you are inviting a bluff here. If he wants to go over the top on the river after you betting the flop, turn and river he has you beat or deserves the pot for a gutsy bluff I think.

Of course, this is all theoretical and I probably would have checked the turn and river and ran away with my tail between my legs when he bet back at me.

Just a thought.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me start this off by saying I think you played the hand like crap

[/ QUOTE ]

You can mess with me.

Last night, I posted likely handranges, which I still think holds true, but I should add a couple more.

My turn bet and call means much more. I think it indicates
1)flush draw
2)fullhouse
3)flush draw with a K (least likely, as I think villain would raise here)
4)flush draw with a 9 (most unfortuante if true - but I think it likely villain checks behind on the river, as he can still win this hand without bluffing)
5) 44-66 - villain is a calling station - but I seriously doubt an allin bet by a calling station on the river.

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

Here is my opinion. I was the BB. How likely is it that I could have had a 3? I think villain has to put me on either a 3, pocket pair, 7x, another flush draw, or a bluff. If I did have a 3, I would have bet this flush draw board the exact same way. So, as villain kept calling it down (without a reraise), I felt confident he was on a flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
your river check would be really nice if you thought he was drawing the whole way so you could induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo, that was my intent. In fact, in the "gathering of information" vain, I further felt that an allin bet gave me even more confidence that this was a busted flush draw. Frankly, I really thought he was going to check it through. And I would have been more worried had he raised it a smaller amount.

[ QUOTE ]
If this were me in the hand though, I would have tried to keep the pot smaller instead of betting the exact potsize on the flop and turn

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably not horrible advice. I am beginning to see the advantages of keeping pots small. That being said, I thought my flop bet was appropriate. But, my turn bet was the one bet I needed to get the most information from. Had I bet that too small, I don't know how I would have interpreted that information. By villain just calling the turn (other than raising), it let me know that his hand was either
A) weak
B) draw
C) monster (7s over 3s)

Keeping pots small: I have had some problems with this strategy. I have kept hands in (and lost) that I believe I would have otherwise pushed out had I bet stronger on the flop and turn. I think there are pros and cons to this strategy. What this hand boils down to here, is that I was willing to be content folding this hand on the river had a club hit, an Ace hit, or villain bet 200 chips. I would have folded to a turn reraise.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry for ripping into you here but I kind of felt like it was needed because of all these recent specific hand posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're ripping me. The one thing I want to do here is learn. I play a lot of games. I've played over 500 this month so far. There's more hands I could post. I think you average 70 hands per SNG. If that's true, then I've seen over 35,000 hands so far this month. I like to post specific hands, as they are helpful to the forum, and, more importantly, to me. I hope to help others learn, and to continue to perfect my poker knowledge. I look forward to the disagreements. It benefits me.

As I told SuitedSixes, I post many hands where I am trying out new concepts, and poker knowledge (or lack thereof). What's the point of posting hands that "make me look smart." Everyone knows how to play those hands (or, I leave those posts to the newbies).

With regard to this hand. The one thing I've been trying to learn is how to "read" betting/calling behavior/patterns. The one flaw in my thinking here, I believe, is that villain could just be a calling station. But that was the whole point of the river check. The river check gave me three opportunities to play the hand
A) Villain checks it through (really cheap showdown)
B) Villain pushes - reveals hand, and self, IMO (i.e. less likely a calling station)
C) Villain raises small amount to induce a call of a worse hand (the bet I feared most).

Please, rip me some more. As I hope to learn/benefit.
I don't want the results of this hand to lead me to believe that I am right.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

[/ QUOTE ]

I was giving him credit for being a solid player and wanting to make you think this. It is so cliche to call the flop and then raise the turn w/ a big flop. So a lot of solid players will change it up and:

A) Raise the flop and confuse them, attempting to disguise the hand

or, much more risky but way less noticeable IMO

B) Don't raise until the river


I was suggesting that he may have chosen B here, and when you did not bet he decided to display some agression and try and induce a call.


Personally, as I've already said, I don't think you should be too concerned with what he actually had or whether you were good. This is just committing too many chips to a marginal situation when you can outplay the blinds later with your massive stack of chiplets.

(and i don't know if Usher was knocking your posts or not, but i happen to like them...its all the tuff decisions that can make or break a poker career)



Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check you are inviting a bluff here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely. I welcomed the allin bluff. As I said earlier for two reasons.
1) It furthers my belief that villain was on a busted flush draw
2) Increases the chips in the pot for my win.

[ QUOTE ]
why not bet a moderate amount

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the bet here. I don't think villain calls the bet if he were on a flush draw. The only way to maximize your chips in the pot here is to check. Furthermore, as I said, I wanted to leave my options open as to figuring out if villain did have the monster (7s over 3s). Had I bet, and he reraised, I would have been more confused. But had villain bet, say 100-200 chips, to induce a call, I would have been worried more.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, as I've already said, I don't think you should be too concerned with what he actually had or whether you were good. This is just committing too many chips to a marginal situation when you can outplay the blinds later with your massive stack of chiplets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to think this way. And there's nothing wrong with this thought process, as it will probably maximize my ROI. But I still want to learn poker. I don't want to just be an SNG expert.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
But I still want to learn poker. I don't want to just be an SNG expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

No kidding. If Party ever changes the structure on these things half the forum is SOL.

[hummusx]

Just wanted to chime in and say that I think you bet too much on the turn. In this particular scenario, I think you would have ended up with the same number of chips in the end, but if a club had fallen on the end you could have saved yourself 50-75 chips. He doesn't have odds to call a bet of 120 any more than a bet of 180.