Easy Push w/Trash?

Augie · #1 04-19-2005, 09:24 PM

$22 NLHE SNG on EuroBet, we have reached the Bubble. Blinds are 200-400.

Stack Sizes, after posting blinds:

UTG - 4996
Button - 420
SB(Hero) - 1524
BB - 460

UTG and Button both fold, and I push with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and I am about 90% sure I will be called.

Bad play or Easy Push?

Augie

curtains · #2 04-19-2005, 09:27 PM

easy push

Matt Walker · #3 04-19-2005, 09:30 PM

If you consider making him throw the other 24 chips he has left a push, then yes this is an easy push.

Augie · #4 04-19-2005, 09:34 PM

Matt Walker,

The stack sizes listed are AFTER posting the blinds, so I need to put in 660 (leaving me with 864) to put him allin. He has 460 left to call with.

Augie

microbet · #5 04-19-2005, 09:45 PM

At 90% sure he will call it is a good push. If you get to about 95% sure he will call it isn't. You were probably exagerating though and at like 75% sure he will call it is a clear push.

curtains · #6 04-19-2005, 09:48 PM

? Even if he calls 100% its a clear push, you have ten high!!

microbet · #7 04-19-2005, 09:53 PM

Maybe, but that's not what SNG powertools says. You did get that the stacks were after posting right?

curtains · #8 04-19-2005, 10:02 PM

No I didnt. But okay even in that case its very clear the BB will fold a lot because the shortstack will be forced in on the next round of blinds.

Augie · #9 04-19-2005, 10:09 PM

microbet,

Why is it not a good push if I'm 95% sure he will call, but good at 90%? Just wondering how you reach that conclusion.

Using SNG Power Tools (and setting the BBs calling range at 100%):

$EV Fold - 26.9%/$53.86

$EV Push - 28.0%/$55.98

$EV No Call - 33.2%/$66

$EV Diff. - +1.1%/+$2.12

So, this is a clear push, yes? And if there is any chance he doesn't call, it only gets better (notice $EV No Call).

Or, is the gain in EV too small to justify this push?

Besides the slight gain in EV, I also considered the fact that I could not be busted out on that hand, and if I did lose that hand, I would still have 864 in chips, whereas the button had 420, and would be hitting the BB before me.

Any other thoughts are appreciated,

Augie

microbet · #10 04-19-2005, 10:22 PM

Well, one of us (or eastbay) is making a slight mistake.

I get $EV fold = $53.36

$EV push = $53.19 if you putting in a wierd huge range, $52.54 if you just put in all the hands. Is there away to do 'all'? I tried 'all' and 'random' and it didn't work.

And to curtains, I agree there is more than enough fold equity here to make it an easy push.