Leading into PFR w/ flopped sets?

[kongo_totte]

Villian in this hand is 20/6.5, and flop. agg. 5 after 200 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter

MP2 ($103)
CO ($100)
Button ($98)
Hero ($100)
BB ($33.63)
UTG ($51.29)
UTG+1 ($107.91)
MP1 ($217.07)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1. Hero posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $5</font>, Hero (poster) calls $4.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO folds.

Flop: ($12) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Do I lead?

I generally am uncertain in situations like this. The dilemma is obvious: if he hit, I'll get more money in if I lead, if he missed, he might bet anyway, and I'll get more money if I check.

What is generally the best line? What other variables should effect my decision? Discuss.

[-Skeme-]

This is totally player dependant. I don't really understand PTracker stats too well as I don't use them much. I'm starting to now, though. Anyways, it's good to have a note on the range of hands he raises preflop with.

I'd probably check here and depending on his bet size I'd act from there.

[spoohunter]

The more draws on the flop, the more you have to lead.

This is a flop he could easily have hit, and also, if he's a loose raiser and could have KJ, K10 etc, you must lead to protect your hand.

If the flop was A92, he either hit, or he didn't, and he's not going to improve, a check raise is ok, especially if he's too loose post flop and can't lay down TP.

[Jester999]

Another consideration is stack sizes. My general rule is to lead into big stacks and checkraise smaller ones if I'm tyring to get alot of money in the middle.

[Finite_Risk]

I might throw out a teaser bet - $12 pot, bet like 4 or 5, if he hit the flop with A or 2 pr, he'll raise and I'll push every time. If he has QQ or AA so be it

[swolfe]

i generally don't check-raise much. i lead a lot of flops specifically so that i can lead out with my big hands like this...

[Finite_Risk]

Great point...

[zaxx19]

[ QUOTE ]
I generally am uncertain in situations like this. The dilemma is obvious: if he hit, I'll get more money in if I lead, if he missed, he might bet anyway, and I'll get more money if I check

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldnt be confused on this flop. An ace and a queen hit and if your preflop raiser wasnt hit with flop you simply arent going to win a big pot anyway....

Lead weakly and proceed from there by playing poker.

[Nikanoru]

Button doesn't have to have anything here. There's already half his bet in the pot before he makes it, and he's got position on all y'all. Does he normally raise to 5? My guess is this is a slight overbet for him, correct?

If he's as aggressive on the flop as this raise makes him out to be, check raise him every time. If you lead out I'd suspect that 80%+ of the time you get nothing more. I think it's worth the relatively slight risk that he has KJ or K10 and is on a gutshot.

I can't believe anyone would really bet out to guard against that, really. Say he checks behind maybe half the time, which is probably more than he actually will - even IF a K or J falls on the turn, his hand range makes it very unlikely that it improved him to a straight, and EVEN THEN, you're still drawing live. I bet you could whittle 300 bars of soap to resemble Jon Stewart before you got beat by a gutshot here.

Check raise. Maybe even check call if you know him well and think he'll fire a second barrel on the turn. But that could get tricky.

[piratemike]

I put him on jacks. Check-raise, then play accordingly.