Down about 200BB within past week - is this why?

[J_B]

Thanks for all the responses here.

The reson why I was asking about these types of hands is because I feel it may be a leak in my game. I've been defaulting to call down mode in these scenarios instead of check/fold. A fold costs 2 bets or so when I do that and call down costs 2 bets.

Most of these hands have no reads on the villian. That's why I posted them in part. These scenarios come up quite a bit and I was truely interested to see some different view points.

Thx,
JB

[TheWorstPlayer]

I'm relatively new to this forum, so I could be way off base here, but I don't see how no one is recommending checking the turn through in your first hand. This seems very obviously the correct move to me. You have a good draw to the virtual nuts which you can take for free, a free card is extremely unlikely to hurt you, if he has a J he is check/raising you for sure, and you may even induce a river bluff from a hand he was going to fold on the turn. If he checks it to you again on the river, then I would value bet his likely weaker ace.

Comments, anyone?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm relatively new to this forum, so I could be way off base here, but I don't see how no one is recommending checking the turn through in your first hand. This seems very obviously the correct move to me. You have a good draw to the virtual nuts which you can take for free, a free card is extremely unlikely to hurt you, if he has a J he is check/raising you for sure, and you may even induce a river bluff from a hand he was going to fold on the turn. If he checks it to you again on the river, then I would value bet his likely weaker ace.

Comments, anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're referring to this hand... (just so others don't have to go back to the top of the thread).


PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

The reason checking the turn is bad is because villain will call with many hands that are nearly drawing dead, like weaker aces, pocket pairs, two hopeless diamonds, etc.

So this is a value bet and we are almost always betting the best hand.

[Duerig]

These hands seem pretty standard, just unfortunate beats probably. I see a lot of people complain that the reason they are losing money is because of bad beats. I'm not sure if that's what you were implying, but it doesn't make sense to me that anyone could lose long term because of bad beats. That sort of thing happens to everyone, in fact, it happens more often to better players (getting sucked out on means you had your money in with a better hand).

If you are losing (not just on an unlucky downswing) it's probably something else. Do you find yourself cold calling raises very often? That's a really good way to tie yourself to a pot and lose a lot of money. Do you value bet the river as often as you should?

This

is another thread you might want to read. Good luck.

[sweave1]

Late to post to this but here it is:
*Grunch*
Hand 1 : i would have been more aggressive on the later streets. cap the turn and raise the river full house usually wins the day.

Hand 2 this one im more skeptical possible straight draw on the flop. how ever no one shows strength on the flop so i reraise the turn and play it like you.

sweave1

[sweave1]

*Grunch*

Hand 1 i would not have capped the flop as it look like he hit, at the turn i probably fold, i think i read in SSHE that if you think you have the better hand raise, if not fold in these close situations.


hand 2
i think he hits the straight draw and unless your calling for the 4 which is what 15-23 to 1 odds for 6 bb i let it go

well in this scenario i say i let it go i call down lots like this looking for loose bluffers.
sweave1

[DavidC]

I had a -150bb swing in either one or two hours of 8-tabling. Not kidding. I stuck it out for like 10k hands and made back a massive winrate of 1/100, and switched to NLHE for a change of pace for a week or two. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I just came back to limit tonight.

Hand 1: Does anyone raise this river? It's probably a wasted bet, but the case jack is quite unlikely... more likely that they're tying though.

Hand 2: MP3 drawing to the flush? I'm not 100% sure that I like the river bet here. If you wanted to do that, raise the turn! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Thing is, I feel that you may be behind to a boat here, given the CR. However, UTG limping with AJ is quite likely also, or AQ for the tie. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What were you shown in these hands? I don't see villain in #2 as having J2 for the two pair. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

--Dave.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Losing to quads is not going to cause a 200BB downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]

This made me smile.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I know much of it is variance, but I think no matter I need to take a serious look at my game after a sudden dive down like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really good idea for two reasons:

1) When you're winning you (i.e. I) have a tendancy to become overconfident and stagnate or slide into worse play.

2) It's worth examining your game when you are losing, because your negative streak may cause you to miss continuation bets / profitable bluffs, etc. and otherwise not play your best.

All in all, a good post.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
No new comments on the hands. But:

[ QUOTE ]
I know much of it is variance, but I think no matter I need to take a serious look at my game after a sudden dive down like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

It takes discipline, but you should doing regular reviews of your play, whether winning, losing, or treading water. For one thing, you learn a lot about your own game; for another, you can identify play patterns of your opponents and make great notes for use when playing real-time.

But in the context of downswing reviews, you'll quite likely find a bunch of bad / questionable plays. This can induce some over-corrections and create a real lack of confidence. Had you been doing regular reviews of all your hands (even your hot streaks), you'd also find a bunch of bad / questionable plays. Knowing that these plays come during both bad and good runs greatly lessens the "shock" value sometimes encountered when someone's first careful review comes in the midst of a confidence-sapping swing. Not to mention that, running good or bad, you can't work on mistakes if you don't identify them first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome post!

Edit: It's a shame to post like that and not have an avatar; go get one. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]