I really should know what to do on this river... - Page 3

StellarWind · #21 04-18-2005, 08:55 AM

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I'd say only about 1 player in 5 or 6 chases gutshots that incorrectly.

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Let's see. He's getting 6-1 on the turn plus 1-2 bets on the river. That's about 7.5-1. In addition have you looked at your own hand recently? I don't see an ace in it. It's certainly possible that an aggressive player like you has some smaller pocket pair or a jack, in which case he has extra outs.

A gutshot is not a good turn call, but it isn't very far short either. Many players do things like this on a regular basis.

ErrantNight · #22 04-18-2005, 09:42 AM

you mean you should know to check/call, right?

QTip · #23 04-18-2005, 10:07 AM

I really like the bet and fold to a raise line here. Most any passive player like the one you described raising this board after you raised PF has a hand we lose to a large % of the time. I think you need to value bet this hand. This fish could be in with a LARGE range of hands...a hand like 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or even worse is not out of the question here. I want to make sure a bet gets in on this river.

Nick C · #24 04-18-2005, 11:54 AM

I think that if your hand is best, most of the time you won't gain an additional bet on the river no matter what you do. I also wonder if a player who will bluff if checked to with a busted draw will also bluff-raise with that missed draw often enough to make betting risky. Since a scare card fell on the river, I suspect he might.

In this case, though, your opponent appears passive based on limited evidence, so the potential bluff may not be that much of a consideration.

Anyway, I agree with StellarWind that the possiblity of Villain checking behind with a better hand is an important consideration.

Also, I think that if your hand is best, a large percentage of the time what you'll be up against is a busted gutshot. I think there are more players who will keep calling with that on this board than, say, pocket 4's.

bobhalford · #25 04-18-2005, 01:17 PM

The other thing that perhaps hasn't been mentioned yet is that a check/check river allows villain to see what you had been doing over the course of the hand. You give him information (which is also information that you know he has about you). If you bet and he folds, you may not get any information, but you know he is not holding an Ace and you hide your strength.

StellarWind · #26 04-18-2005, 01:29 PM

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The other thing that perhaps hasn't been mentioned yet is that a check/check river allows villain to see what you had been doing over the course of the hand. You give him information (which is also information that you know he has about you). If you bet and he folds, you may not get any information, but you know he is not holding an Ace and you hide your strength.

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Yes, I agree. Getting to see his hand is mentioned as a benefit several times in this thread. The truth is that seeing his hand is less important than the drawback of showing your hand to nine people.

BottlesOf · #27 04-18-2005, 01:29 PM

This one seems like a clearer check-call to me than GM's hands.

chesspain · #28 04-18-2005, 08:43 PM

Wow...I was pleasantly shocked at the number of posters who jumped in to contribute with their thoughts.

On the river, I realized that the second J falling meant that any double Bdwy hand with which he could have coldcalled was either beating me or had missed so completely that there was no way he could call a bet. In addition, as Stellarwind mentioned, the second J falling also increased the likelihood that I could get a free showdown, since my opponent could easily have a hand like A6 but think that I was now afraid to bet my big Ace because of fear over possible trips.

Consequently, since I wanted to showdown this hand, and felt that there was a good chance I would get a free showdown when ahead, but potentially induce a bluff by a busted draw or a "value bet" by a hand like 77/99/TT...

I checked, my opponent checked behind, and MHIG.

Unfortunately, his cards were neither shown nor appeared on the rudimentary HH this site provides, so I have no idea what he had. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

StellarWind · #29 04-19-2005, 02:39 AM

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Unfortunately, his cards were neither shown nor appeared on the rudimentary HH this site provides, so I have no idea what he had.

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I wondered about the site. 4/8 is not widely spread online. Where were you playing? What do you like about it?

cbragado · #30 04-19-2005, 03:34 AM

If you have no read on this guy, I like a bet here to get middle pair or a pocket pair to pay off your big two pair. If he wouldn't raise with an ace anyway, fearing three jacks from you, the bet could be profitable if your opponent has the propensity to pay off. And if this guy raises you with that board on the river, you can lay the hand down with no regrets. Most average low stakes players don't go for intricate river bluff raises, imho.

If he calls the river bet you're a dog, but gain a bet when ahead. But if you check, you miss a bet from a smaller two pair, when it comes check-check and you pay off aces or three jacks if he bets.

Who knows, if he is scared of you he may lay down an ace rag fearing that you have three jacks or a full! Unlikely but hey...