#7
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Re: Question about poker droughts
If one is a good poker player they know it not because they win, but why they are winning. No one plays flawless poker, however
certain situations are fundamental. Seeing players in violation of principles of poker is profitable for you no matter what happens. For example, lets say i am against 2 opponents on the turn. I bet and get called by both. The guy in last position is getting 6-1 for a gut shot, his only out, which is obvious to him. If he calls he's an idiot assuming his implied odds are 8-1. Now he might not know any better, but there are some people that have to call. They psychologically know its bad to call, but realize they will only lose 1 bet if they don't make it, and less than that in the long run. However if they get there and they didn't call, they will now tilt and probably lose every chip in front of them. So they take the lesser of 2 evils: the bad turn call. Now, I see opponents make mistakes like this all the time. When I see my opponents make mistakes I don't make, I know im getting the money so long as i am playing under my bankroll, regardless of what streak I have to endure. If you play a lot you will have to endure lots of crazy streaks. Look at these numbers, a good player earning 2.5BB/100 (less than 1BB per hour in a live game), with a standard deviation of 16BB/100 (a typical number) has about a 1/908 chance of not showing a profit after 50,000 hands and he is a proven winner. Things like this scare me. |
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