How sure do you have to be here?

[mtdoak]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

UTG+1 is very TAGish. A few hands ago I handed him a nasty beat (i had 98 in the SB, flop comes 996, turn a rag, river an 8, he had 96). He's somewhat aggro preflop, so I'm about 70% he would raise 99. Should I be capping this river?

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (20.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 22.75 BB

[jclin]

I think a river bet is definitely in order. Limping KK PF is possible, but unlikely. 99 is the only thing you lose to...calling a raise on river is fine IMO, but capping is cool too.

[toss]

I think I'd bet the river and call a raise. He could have 44.

[mute]

If Villain really is TAG, then I have a hard time putting him on anything but 44 or 99. But I also think most TAGs wouldn't go nuts on the turn like this with bottom set, so I think check/calling the river is fine.

I would cap the flop though, with SB still in the hand.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
But I also think most TAGs wouldn't go nuts on the turn like this with bottom set....

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree.

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think most TAGs wouldn't go nuts on the turn like this with bottom set, so I think check/calling the river is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going apeshit on this turn with 44.