River push, yea or nay?

Aukai · #1 04-14-2005, 11:50 PM

Villian is 58/4 over only 25 hands, haven't seen anything out of the ordinary from him. My read given the action was that he had AK. Good line?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

Button ($28.19)
SB ($40.6)
BB ($38)
UTG ($73)
UTG+1 ($88.97)
UTG+2 ($52.94)
Hero ($60.45)
MP2 ($50.75)
MP3 ($64.5)
CO ($67.3)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.75, 6 folds, UTG calls $2.75.

Flop: ($8.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($18.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $10, UTG calls $10.

River: ($38.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero pushes, UTG calls $31.70.

Final Pot: $111.65

TrailofTears · #2 04-15-2005, 12:42 AM

It seems like a strange time for a value bet from villain, so I would have to interpret it as a blocking bet. However, this probably assumes too much about villain's knowledge of these things. I don't mind either the call or the push here, but you are only really ahead of AK, AT, or KK in terms of hands that villain would raise UTG with and call several bets from. Again, I probably assume too much.

-Trail

spoohunter · #3 04-15-2005, 12:45 AM

Why didn't you raise the flop?

mason55 · #4 04-15-2005, 12:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like a strange time for a value bet from villain, so I would have to interpret it as a blocking bet. However, this probably assumes too much about villain's knowledge of these things. I don't mind either the call or the push here, but you are only really ahead of AK, AT, or KK in terms of hands that villain would raise UTG with and call several bets from. Again, I probably assume too much.

-Trail

[/ QUOTE ]

4% PFR takes away AT I think. I think you're left with a few hands he'll make this raise with PF.

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ.

You're beating AK and KK. JJ is impossible. Personally, his check call turn/bet river scares me.

Why do you put him on EXACTLY AK? That's terrible in my opinion, you have to put him on a RANGE. And after his turn/river play I personally narrow that range to AQ.

TrailofTears · #5 04-15-2005, 12:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
4% PFR takes away AT I think. I think you're left with a few hands he'll make this raise with PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 58/4 over only 25 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a hard time respecting a stat based on 25 hands when people question PT stats from thousands.

That being said, I think this one is close and either play is okay. If pushing is -EV, it isn't by much, IMO.

-Trail

mason55 · #6 04-15-2005, 01:01 AM

missed that 25 hands thing. i guess that's important.

Aukai · #7 04-15-2005, 01:24 AM

My read given the action was AK, but I didn't put him absolutely squarely on it. He minraises in EP like a good Party donk, he puts out a reasonable bet on the flop, checks the turn when his flop bet gets called, and puts out what smells like a blocking bet on the river. But sure, I consider a range of other hands as well, which must include things like AQ or AJ. I didn't think he'd have checked the turn with two pair or better with straight and flush draws out there, but you never know with these people.

So since I think he has AK, but some percentage of the time he has me beat, I'm not sure what the best play is here.

And in hindsight, I definitely should have raised the flop, but since the flop is drawless, if I raise, it announces my hand and shuts him down. By waiting to raise the turn or bet if he checks, I think it puts him in a harder spot if he does have AK or something similar.

But I'm new to this PL stuff and would like to hear more comments...