Sample Size of SnGs Needed to Approach a Normal Distribution

[XChamp]

[ QUOTE ]
one of the following four things is said in jest:

1) you need no more than 10 sngs to tell your win rate pretty accurately.
2) you should be wary of any future advice from the person that gave you the 25 number, he's way off.
3) you should learn to use the search function immediately
4) it's very likely i don't like you, as a person.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't understand why this thread turned into a circus.

I am asking a fairly technical mathematical question. I will reword it.


I want to know what sample size of Sit and Goes I need before I can apply the Central Limit Theorem.

I want to know this so I can go about figuring out the standard deviation of my winrate per 50, or 100 sit and goes. I have read 1.5-2.0 before as well, (I'm assuming that is the standard deviation of one sng and the unit is 'buy-in'), but I would like to figure it on my own then post my results.


In this way I would actually be contributing to this message board rather than posting garbage whose only purpose is to stroke ones ego or post count.



Why all the hate?

[The Yugoslavian]

SD explanation (for lay persons)

SD for math person

More useful math-oriented crap I don't fully understand

Read through all of this stuff. If whatever you're really trying to find out (which I still don't think is clear) isn't here....then you're SOL b/c I'm not giving away any more links. Try using the search function.

Yugoslav
No Shadow, these aren't for you to include on your thingamadoo...

[skipperbob]

Now that's funny [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Deuce2High]

I don't know if this will help you but if you input your data on AleoMagus' spreadsheet it will figure out your confidence levels for you.

Deuce2High
Who got a 5 on his AP Stats test and has no [censored] clue how to use statistics anymore.

[XChamp]

Thanks.

[Izverg04]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why this thread turned into a circus.


[/ QUOTE ]
Me neither. There was nothing in your post to provoke such smug bashing.

Winrate over 25 SNGs will be distributed very close to normal (assuming that winrate is constant). You can check the results for 50 here:

http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com...comparison.xls

I am sure you'd find the same picture for 25 also.

[valenzuela]

I must be missing something, ure not really suggesting 25 is enough smaple size? ...ure not right?

[raptor517]

fill up the entire aleomagus spreadsheet with sng data and you will be halfway to where you need to be. holla

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
I must be missing something, ure not really suggesting 25 is enough smaple size? ...ure not right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.
SNG results will approach a normal distribution after relatively few observations. (assume 25) So, if after 2 billion SNG's (like that Citanul? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) your ROI is 30%, you can say with certainty that your expected ROI over your next 25 is also 30%.

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why this thread turned into a circus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite frankly, it turned into a circus because the people responding are clowns. They clearly did not understand your question. I have a statistics degree and did understand, so I'll give you a rational response.

First of all, the correct answer is that there is no number large enough to give you an analysis that contains statistical significance. In order to apply CLT, you need to be working with independent identically distributed random variables. Results from sit-n-go poker tournaments do not fit that requirement.

That said, the 25 number is pretty close to being right if you're still interested in running the math as an interesting exercise with no statistical merit. The jcm post in Yugo's first link pretty well demonstrates that 25 does an adequate job and the Aleo Magus post from Yugo's 3rd link shows that 8 clearly is not adequate.