Changing Plans

[Nate tha' Great]

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explain this part if you don't mind:

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if he gets a free showdown from a worse hand just 10% of the time, that's worth 4 or 5 outs

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specifically how you assign a value to this. it seems to me you have valued a 10% shot at a free showdown rather high. but i am definitely not certain of that.

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Okay, suppose on the turn that I have a weighted average of 5 outs (gutshot + set, discounted some for splits, etc.) Suppose also think I that there's a 20% chance that I presently have the best hand (IMO, this is conservative), and that half the time I do have the best hand, he'll check it to me on the river rather than valuebluffing, either with the intention of calling or perhaps just giving up.

I'll win 5/46 = ~11% of the time on the river by improving. In addition, 20% x 50% = 10% of the time, he'll have a worse hand *and* will check it to me, so I'll win those times as well. In total, I'm winning a bit more than 20% of the time, or 4:1, or about a 9-outer, depending on how you want to look at it, but either way that's better than the 4.83:1 that the pot is laying me.

However, those times that he does bet the river under these parameters, I'm only beating him 1 time out of 9, so it would be correct for me to fold getting 6.83:1.

I do try and take these sort of things into account, especially when against a reasonable opponent; even a small chance of getting a free card or free showdown can turn a fairly clear fold into a fairly clear call.

[stoxtrader]

nice post. I think you are including the value of "currently having the best hand" (your analysis on which i think is spot on), and lumping it in with the value of "getting a free showdown".

only thing i would say now is you are assigning a lot of information to the river bet. your logic i follow 100%, i guess i disagree that his river bet represents so much, particularly with any possible draws on the board.

[astroglide]

after you cold call the best guess on your hand is going to be a medium pocket pair. if he thinks you're decent, he knows you're not going to be calling down with 88 or whatever on that board. i don't think he's betting a hand on the river that DOESN'T beat you very often. i'd fold it too if he knows you're decent. if it were AxxTx or something it would definitely merit a call.

[DcifrThs]

honestly, if you were planning on calling the turn when you called the flop, raise the flop.

this actually costs exactly the same if he 3 bets and leads the turn (you fold) and gives you the option of checking behind and calling a river bet.

this will also sometimes get him to bet into you in the turn w/ your good hands you choose to raise the flop with because he'd be scared of you going for the cheap showdown play again.

although he quite likely has an ace this time (or JJ/TT) and the only hand he can have that you beat here is either QQ (which probly wouldn't bet the river) or KJs if the table was tight, getting to the showdown for .5bbs more than it costs to not see a showdown is a plus and you may even win the hand by raising the flop.

so raise the flop, if he 3 bets and leads, you fold. if you are checked to check it through (OR bet and fold to a c'r safely and check behind river) planning to see a sd for 1 bet.

-Barron

[Nate tha' Great]

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this actually costs exactly the same if he 3 bets and leads the turn (you fold) and gives you the option of checking behind and calling a river bet.

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It might cost the same, but it doesn't benefit (?) the same, since calling the turn allows you to see a river card, as well has puts him to a decision about whether or not to bet the river. Calling also encourages him to keep betting into you with a worse hand.

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this will also sometimes get him to bet into you in the turn w/ your good hands you choose to raise the flop with because he'd be scared of you going for the cheap showdown play again.

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People are going to do plenty of this anyway.

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so raise the flop, if he 3 bets and leads, you fold. if you are checked to check it through (OR bet and fold to a c'r safely and check behind river) planning to see a sd for 1 bet.



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I dunno ... IMO the flop raise is pretty transparent, and suggests a strong likelihood that opponent does NOT have a pair of aces (although he might have some other very strong hand that is looking for action). I don't do a lot of naked bluffing in this game, but if for whatever reason I felt the need to try and push somebody off of something, this wouldn't be a bad spot for it.

[Nate tha' Great]

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nice post. I think you are including the value of "currently having the best hand" (your analysis on which i think is spot on), and lumping it in with the value of "getting a free showdown".

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Correct. If I think there's some chance that I have the best hand, and also some chance that the opponent will check it to me if I do have the best hand, but I'm not planning on calling further bets, then I treat it essentially as having additional "outs". Sounds obscure, but this situation comes up quite a bit, especially against an opponent who knows thate you're capable of operating at different speeds.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
explain this part if you don't mind:

[ QUOTE ]
if he gets a free showdown from a worse hand just 10% of the time, that's worth 4 or 5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

specifically how you assign a value to this. it seems to me you have valued a 10% shot at a free showdown rather high. but i am definitely not certain of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, suppose on the turn that I have a weighted average of 5 outs (gutshot + set, discounted some for splits, etc.) Suppose also think I that there's a 20% chance that I presently have the best hand (IMO, this is conservative), and that half the time I do have the best hand, he'll check it to me on the river rather than valuebluffing, either with the intention of calling or perhaps just giving up.

I'll win 5/46 = ~11% of the time on the river by improving. In addition, 20% x 50% = 10% of the time, he'll have a worse hand *and* will check it to me, so I'll win those times as well. In total, I'm winning a bit more than 20% of the time, or 4:1, or about a 9-outer, depending on how you want to look at it, but either way that's better than the 4.83:1 that the pot is laying me.

However, those times that he does bet the river under these parameters, I'm only beating him 1 time out of 9, so it would be correct for me to fold getting 6.83:1.

I do try and take these sort of things into account, especially when against a reasonable opponent; even a small chance of getting a free card or free showdown can turn a fairly clear fold into a fairly clear call.

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-Barron