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#62
04-14-2005, 03:54 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The pro just went 9 bets on the turn with a hand that wasnt the nuts. (unless there are 5 queens in the deck which would be too funny) If he had JJ or any sort of OESF draw, his turn play is terrible regardless. After it goes 3 bets on the turn, it's pretty evident you're not folding. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is key. If he's a pro, he does know what you have on the river. However, given how he played the turn, it's certainly possible he's bluffing. He knows what you have and he also knows you know he knows what you have. Knowing this, there's a good chance a bluff on the river could work since you're assuming he wouldn't check-raise you since he already knows you had the nuts on the turn. This could indeed make a bluff possible at this point. [/ QUOTE ] This is 100% wrong. The pro knows there is not one single player not named Tommy Angelo that would fold this river. This CR is never ever ever a bluff UNLESS the pro is just screwing around some more for the fun of it. (Which in this case is obviously a possibility considering his turn play). 
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#63
04-14-2005, 04:40 AM
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I don\'t care about the hand.
When I read Tommy's post I didn't even care about the actual hand. Tommy's assumptions in this hand are not the same as in the initial post and even a bit contraditionary, because he is assuming a very good player (who goes 9 bets on the turn with a draw??) and the initial post who considers "a tourny pro who was waiting to get into the 2k-4k mixed game." That doesn't mean that he's playing well at the moment at all. It might refer to the fact that he is CAPABLE of playing well. But you should factor in the possibility that he's fooling around in this 'low' stakes game. That makes it a call IMO, but you also should expect to be beat a fair percentage of the times (read Tommy's post for the arguments why). His argument that the pro more likely has a huge draw than a set is a very good one IMO.
But that's not the point of Tommy's post! At least not how I read it. When I first read it, I was struck by his bold defense of folding, which, I'm quite sure, none of you even considered. Including me. And that got me thinking why the thought of folding never crossed my mind. It's because I'm way too much attached to that thing in the middle. It clouded my mind so heavily that I only considered two of the three options I have! And now you're all going to say that you DID consider folding, but concluded against it. If you did that, and in fact considered all the arguments why folding is right/wrong, then my hat is off to you. But if you disregarded folding because you hear Sklansky whispering "pot-odds" in your ear, like that little devil did to me, then you can absolutely learn from Tommy's post. Also: Suppose there is an Almighty Sklansky whispering in your ear that only 1% of the times you're ahead. I wonder how many people convince themselves into calling, rather questioning the Almighty Sklansky then that huge pot in the middle. Regards
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#64
04-14-2005, 04:56 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
But since your opponent is a pro, (depending on who pro is) there must be reasonable chance that he knows Hero might fold. If there is a chance he knows he might make get Hero to fold (because Hero is Tommy Angelo for example) then Hero should not fold. That, together with the huge size of the pot dictating that Villain should try anything to win it, mandates a Hero call. Hero may also learn something about how pro played his hand.... can you imagine folding and Villain not showing his hand! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#65
04-14-2005, 05:02 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
But since your opponent is a pro, (depending on who pro is) there must be reasonable chance that he knows Hero might fold [/ QUOTE ] Again, I could not disagree more. IMO the pro must assume with about 100% certainty that Hero will not fold ever no matter what.
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#67
04-14-2005, 07:58 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
We won't be able to agree which is the likely "level" which the pro or Hero is thinking. If Hero was Tommy, he would be folding, which makes the pro check-raise correct. If Hero was me, I'm calling. I think there are too many unknowns to make a Heroic fold - and then maybe not even see the cards.
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#69
04-14-2005, 10:24 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
I went scrolling to the end, hoping you hadn't posted the results yet. I think the right play against a very good player is to fold to the checkraise on the river. A very good player is way more likely to go nine-bets on the turn with a huge draw than with second set. And if you're the type (as I am) who would never go nine-bets there without pocket queens, and if the very good player suspects that you are that type of player, then when I put it all together, it's a no-brainer fold on the river. You can't have the best hand anymore. Tommy [/ QUOTE ] No very good player is going 9 bets on the turn without the nuts, making this line of thinking moot IMO.
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