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#51
04-13-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
At this point, I know exactly what hand he has [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I sit for about a minute thinking about 3 betting knowing what his hand is and figuring he is possibly a lot weaker than that. I end up just calling. [/ QUOTE ] This is stupid, you say you know what he has, yet you have to think about what to do, its either raise or fold, pick one since you know what he has. 
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#52
04-13-2005, 10:14 PM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
But the general attitude that gets displayed on this forum way too much is that "pot is big, must call" [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. While this isnt a pot that I or anyone else likely could fold it doesn't mean that you arn't clearly beat here. Opp. hand is clearly defined by the checkraise as he KNOWS you won't fold for one more bet. It doesn't mean I or anyone else would fold, but it also doesn't mean a fold is terrible, or even incorrect. -Brad
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#53
04-13-2005, 10:40 PM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
Wish I could say, with a 95% certainty, that Tommy was only being sarcastic... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#54
04-13-2005, 10:46 PM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But the general attitude that gets displayed on this forum way too much is that "pot is big, must call" [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. While this isnt a pot that I or anyone else likely could fold it doesn't mean that you arn't clearly beat here. Opp. hand is clearly defined by the checkraise as he KNOWS you won't fold for one more bet. It doesn't mean I or anyone else would fold, but it also doesn't mean a fold is terrible, or even incorrect. -Brad [/ QUOTE ] I agree. The opponent knows that there is absoultely no chance in a million years that anyone is going to fold to his checkraise after going that many bets on the turn. So clearly he has the flush and is doing it for value, or is just doing it to screw around and be funny. I would call only because of the latter.
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#55
04-13-2005, 11:02 PM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
These few posts suggesting that a fold might be clsoe to correct are horrible. The only way you are sure you are beat is if you are playing against someone who you are sure is thinking about his play in a away to maximize his profit. Since hero's had was obvious on about the 4th bet into the turn, the pro continued to make several obvious mistakes. Clearly he is not playing to maximize his winnings. Given his turn play there is some chance he has any two cards......What costs more check raising the river for 1 bet on the river or going 9 bets on the turn with a 37% chance of winning?
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#56
04-13-2005, 11:53 PM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
Forever learning, Ikke. [/ QUOTE ] Semantics again. It was a play on Ikke's tag...basically don't learn to play the river like Tommy suggests here. Of course, you should learn from everything you read here...but don't take what someone says as gospel just b/c he is a prolific poster. I think I articulated my reasons for disagreeing well. Sorry for any confusion. Jeff
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#57
04-14-2005, 12:39 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
So, a very good player who makes huge mathematical mistakes by pushing a draw so hard on the turn suddenly just MUST be a thinking gamble-free player on the river? I mean, you are saying that there is not a chance (i.e. given your no brainer fold comment) that he is just gambling on the river again with a hand less than QQ.
I know what you are getting at from a generailized point of view but it doesn't fit here.
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#59
04-14-2005, 01:32 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] At this point, I know exactly what hand he has [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I sit for about a minute thinking about 3 betting knowing what his hand is and figuring he is possibly a lot weaker than that. I end up just calling. [/ QUOTE ] This is stupid, you say you know what he has, yet you have to think about what to do, its either raise or fold, pick one since you know what he has. [/ QUOTE ] sponger, I was reffering to what i thought he has on the turn...I did not expect him to check raise the river due to the fact that I figured he held JJ. Now when he check raises me on the river, with 26 big bets in the pot, it is very possible he is bluffing to win a pot that he can't with a showdown, he has a flush or straight, or he has a worse hand than mine. 26 big bets was plenty, I made the correct move and called. When he check raises me, I had to adjust my thinking and change the idea of what he was holding.... he makes this play if he hits or not...it is his only chance to win the pot.... I call the check raise no matter what. If I saw his cards, that is the only way I raise or fold. Pot is big enough at this point...And, I no longer held the best possible hand.
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#60
04-14-2005, 02:32 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
The pro just went 9 bets on the turn with a hand that wasnt the nuts. (unless there are 5 queens in the deck which would be too funny) If he had JJ or any sort of OESF draw, his turn play is terrible regardless. After it goes 3 bets on the turn, it's pretty evident you're not folding. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is key. If he's a pro, he does know what you have on the river. However, given how he played the turn, it's certainly possible he's bluffing. He knows what you have and he also knows you know he knows what you have. Knowing this, there's a good chance a bluff on the river could work since you're assuming he wouldn't check-raise you since he already knows you had the nuts on the turn. This could indeed make a bluff possible at this point.
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