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#1
04-13-2005, 05:55 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here? [/ QUOTE ] I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless. [/ QUOTE ] If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn. -SmileyEH 
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#2
04-13-2005, 05:59 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here? [/ QUOTE ] I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless. [/ QUOTE ] If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] We're talking semi-bluff though, not a stone cold. If your opponents are generally donks, I think you'll get at least 2 callers, hence I like the bet.
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#3
04-13-2005, 06:00 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here? [/ QUOTE ] I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless. [/ QUOTE ] If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] I'm refering to the river. IF they all the turn, they're calling the river.
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#4
04-13-2005, 06:02 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
IF they all the turn, they're calling the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option.
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#5
04-13-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] IF they all the turn, they're calling the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option. [/ QUOTE ] I think you almost have to bet the river if you get just one caller on the turn.
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#6
04-13-2005, 08:04 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
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I almost always make this bet. But it always seems like somebody picked up a set of 5s and pops me so I have to pay an extra bet to see the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit the river. Nonetheless, I continue to believe it's the right thing to do. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] IF they all the turn, they're calling the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option. [/ QUOTE ] I think you almost have to bet the river if you get just one caller on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Yes and yes. Good turn bet, I like it a lot and would DEFINITELY be betting here myself. It seems like I usually end up hating myself, but I think it's the right move. And if only one calls, you absolutely have to bet a rag river.
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#8
04-13-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
again: what percentage of the time do you expect to take it down on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Assume you'll get 2 callers (on average). You have ~14 outs and thereby 30% equity. By betting you'll on average lose: 2*0.3 - 0.70*1= -0.1BB The opponents then need to fold only 0.1/2.5= 4% of the time to make it profitable. Now this calculation is too simplyfied. You might get raised. Get more callers or less, but on average 2 is not a too bad estimation. You also might bluff the river succesfully. I just wanted to demonstrate with the calculation that you don't to win this pot an awfull lot at the turn to make a bet profitable.
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#9
04-13-2005, 06:26 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
yes, saddly that is too simplified. but i do get your point and agree that the magic number does not need to be particularly large.
like i said above, you are quite happy with 2 callers. the problem is that you will end up with 1 caller too frequently IMO.
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#10
04-13-2005, 06:34 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
like i said above, you are quite happy with 2 callers. the problem is that you will end up with 1 caller too frequently IMO. [/ QUOTE ] Then assume you'll end up with 1 caller every time except for the times you'll buy the pot. Turn EV for 1 caller: 1*0.3 - 1*0.7= -0.4 Then they all would need to fold 16% of the time. That's not a large number and still the 2nd worst scenario. Assume you'll get raised and end up HU every time except for when your semi-bluff succeeds: 2*0.3 - 2*0.7= -0.8 You still only need to win right away 1/3 of the time and that's the very worst case scenario and won't happen too often. My point is betting should be pretty easy.
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