Jumping in the deep end (NL $1000)

[Matt Flynn]

fold.

[gomberg]

I don't know - I've been in this situation on party 2 times (where I bet river on a TTxxQ type board w/ AA or KK) - I've bet the river small, then called all-in raises on the river and seen a bluff both times (granted I had reads that this could happen. w/out a good idea how opp plays, probably fold - but not sure). Granted, I'm also a calling station...

[AgileMike]

Everybody thinks his play was great, but I really don't like the small raise with AA out of position. Now I only play the 400/600 tables, but I think a small raise is really a mistake here. Make it at least $50 to go, and get him pot committed when you like the flop.

For all of you that like the $35 raise out of position, please tell me why? I think you are just setting yourself up for the win a small pot/lose a big pot situation when you don't throw in a big raise preflop. I really don't think you need to play that tricky against most opponents.

Comments/flames please....

[aggie]

You're probably right, although, let's say hero bets $300 on the river as many have reccomended.

Now hero is getting better than 3-1 to make a call here. I would say to myself, "surely i'm good here 25% of the time" and i would make the call (knowing that i'm most likely behind).

I'm starting to find that this may be a real leak in my game. How big of a mistake is this kind of thinking?

[wontons]

your talking about raising 15 more dollars...who cares...and yes i would raise to 50 but it doesnt change the hand at all...your still going to be looking at the board for what to do..not the extra 15 bucks your opponent put in.

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
Make it $450 straight on the turn after he bets $150, and you'll most likely take it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

And why would he want to do that, exactly?

[aggie]

I don't think you would find another player here who would suggest the $35 raise was optimal. The bet should have probably been $50-$60...Many probably haven't commented on it because this was a tiny mistake and is not the main point of the post. The other streets in this particular post are much more interesting.

[RED FACE]

I don't play this high but isn't the problem that betting more loses the AQ and AJs but not the pocket pairs so you're still left with the winning a small pot vs missed pp and losing a large pot against hit pp's while a smaller bet at least gives you the chance to get against a dominated hand for a least a medium pot?

[JKratzer]

It can be real big leak. Say you bet $200 on the river and someone goes all-in for $300 you could be getting pretty good odds (depending on the pot size). However, if you know that person wouldn't commit the $300 on a bluff you better have the goods to look him up. Calling because you're getting "X:1" is a leak. If you knew for a fact you're opponent only raises with the nuts, it would be correct to fold the second nuts with infinite odds. Try to know how likely your opponent is to bluff in a given situation and you might be able to make better laydowns. My thought process was similar to yours in terms of pot-odds but trusting my instincts and reads has saved me a lot of money.

JKratzer

[JKratzer]

[ QUOTE ]
your talking about raising 15 more dollars...who cares...

[/ QUOTE ]

I like to get as much money in when I have the nuts as possible. If you don't care about 2.5BBs I'll take it.

JKratzer