When to Raise in O8 (Or "Steve Badger: Jedi Master")

[Jeffrey Biship]

On-line, Loose-ish (fluctuating between 4-8 to the flop) passive .50/1.00 Omaha 8 game.

I limp from middle position with Ah2h34. I'm hoping it gets raised behind me, but that's too much to hope. Six players see the flop.

Flop: 6h 7h Jc

The blinds check and the player to my right bets. I call, again wanting to keep weak flush draws in. Players have been showing down less than the nuts for high AND low, even in multiway pots. One player folds. Five to the turn.

Turn: Ts

Flop bettor bets again. The spectral form of Steve Badger appears in my bedroom surrounded by a shimmering silver nimbus and wearing the distinctive robes of the Jedi Master. A voice echos in my head: "The Turn is where you make most of your money in Omaha eight or better*" The beep of the online clock clears my head. I just call.

When should I have raised this hand? Do I want to keep players in? Do I care if I drive players out, since I've got a pretty good shot at scooping? Do I care that I'm still drawing?

Thanks in advance,

Jeff

*This is not a quote. Infact, I thought I read it in his "Introduction to Omaha Strategy" on his website, but I couldn't find it after a cursory re-skimming. Maybe I'm misremembering or misattributing this little piece of "advice."

[beernutz]

You have 9 outs to the nut flush of which 2 (J, T) pair the board and 4 give you the nut high and nut low (8, 5, 4, 3). Given the early action, I wouldn't be surprised if early better didn't have trips killing 2 of your heart outs. The other 2 fives give you bottom straight and make your low but I don't give them much hope of pulling in high with this many callers still in.

So I get 20 total outs to low (any A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8) of which the 4 remaining low hearts take high and low. The 3 high hearts scoop.

You probably aren't going to drive out any other A2s with a raise here but you may drive out another chaser for low and avoid sharing the pot. For example someone with A3 may hang on for one bet here but fold to 2 allowing you to scoop low if a 2 hits. Raising is of course the high variance play but I think its advantages outweigh the negatives here.

Disclaimer: I am like a student submitting my homework here. I throw this stuff out in hopes the likes of buzz, chaos, DPCondit, etc. and of course Ray, will take pity on me and point me in the right direction.

[chaos]

I would raise on the flop and reraise if given the opportunity.

It doesn't get much better than this. You have the nut low draw with double counterfeit protection. If the low comes you will have the nuts. You also have a draw to the nut flush. Any heart other than the Jack gives you the nut flush on the turn. So 24 cards out of the 45 unseen cards gives you the nuts one way or another.

After the turn your outs are reduced to 23 out of 44. This is still better than even money.

Another benefit is that by raising on the flop you might be able to drop an 89 with little else since he may figure that his heart outs are no good and any 5 will only get him half the pot at best. This may enable you to scoop if a 5 comes.

I do not care whether or not I am drawing or have a made hand. As long as I am getting a +EV on new money going in I will try and get as much as possible in. Unlike in Hold 'Em, in Omaha/8 and Omaha high only the draws are often the favorite over a made hand

[Buzz]

"A voice echos in my head: "The Turn is where you make most of your money in Omaha eight or better*""

Jeff - I think I wrote that, and then Steve Badger disagreed with me, back when he was still posting here. To some extent two different styles of play can both be successful strategies on a given hand. Alas, what evidently worked well for Badger did not always work as well for me (but sometimes it did).

"When should I have raised this hand?"

I would have raised after the flop with this one.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[DisRdatMan]

chaos,
Still a rookie, and still low limit Omaha, but I've got to make my argument, which I know is based more on intuition than on statistics. You have mighty good odds to scoop a large pot (more likely 3/4). But, unlike other hands, if you don't fill, you've got last place. I've just got to believe that reraising on the flop will thin the group, leaving A2, and two pair and/or trips. My intuition tells me to build the pot at lower cost to me; if I hit, I jam it; if a pair shows, I minimize my expense.

The decision point on the flop is: if I raise, will nearly everyone stay? If so, I raise. If I think a number of marginal hands will fold on my raise, I don't do it.

Dis

[chaos]

In the games I play in, a single raise on the flop is only going to knock out a few people. It is still early in the hand so it will be hard for them to figure out which way you are going. You could have a set, top two pair, a wrap around straight draw, a flush draw or a low draw.

Knocking out some marginal draws can be very profitable. I mentioned knocking out the striaght draw. Similarly if you get an A3 to fold, you may get the entire low side if a 2 comes to counterfeit the other A2s.

[iblucky4u2]

Personally, I like the raise on the turn. If another high, non pair card comes, you have a great chance to scoop with a bluff. In O/8, some of the biggest pots I've won have come with this strategy. It sounds like there is one player with a set and the others are probably low str8 and low draws. I love to watch the low miss on the river and see everyone ready to fold before any bets are even made. With the raise on the turn, you set this up perfectly, giving yourself a chance to win a large pot even without making your hand! If the bluff statefy works only once in 5 or more hands, it is well worth it and that does not count the times when you actually make your hand.

[beetman]

I would also raise the flop. In my experience, the people who will chase poor draws like weak flush draws tend to do it for one bet or two, so they will probably call anyway. I think raising the flop is better than waiting to raise the turn because first, your hand is better on the flop than it is on the turn when a blank hits, and second, the weak draws are more likely to fold the turn then they are to fold on the flop.

[Jeffrey Biship]

Buzz--

Sorry I misattributed your wisdom to Badger. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks to all for the feedback. I wasn't afraid of variance on the hand, just afraid of scaring away the weak draws.

I think next time I'll raise on the flop and see what happens.

Thanks again,

Jeff