AJo UTG: Debatable on every street

[Nick C]

Tough hand.

I don't like any of my options on the flop.

There's a case to be made for raising, I suppose, but I'm thinking BB most likely either has a big pair and won't fold anytime soon (and might 3-bet the flop) or our ace outs aren't any good unless he does fold, and it's going to be expensive trying to get him to do that. And since our broadway cards don't contain a club, the chances go up that his do.

If I call, I worry about a raise behind me. But I don't really want to fold two overcards getting 13:1 either.

Anyway, there's a good chance I would call, but, like I said, I don't like any of my options, and I wonder if in fact folding might be best.

On the turn, though, I think I like a raise. I worry about a 3-bet from BB, but I think we want to put pressure on MP1. It's hard to say what he has, but many potential holdings that you're beating could have a lot of outs against you.

The river is uncomfortable, and hands like 87s and T9s and 88 and KQ just beat you on the river. But MP1 will probably bet those hands (and he'll certainly bet KQ, if by some chance he has that), and I'd have trouble folding to a single sudden bet at this point. Anyway, you do say MP1 makes a lot of postflop calls, and maybe he has a hand like A7s or A3s or 44 and will call with that.

There is some chance he'll check behind with a two-pair hand, fearing the 4-straight on the board, so that's something to consider too. Also, I have my doubts about your getting paid off by BB if he has a worse hand.

Ugh. I want to bet the river, and I think I often would, but I can also see myself sometimes checking. And if I'd just called on the turn, I'd have less betting momentum going, and I might (somewhat irrationally) end up checking for that reason.