Another 99 hand

[JTG51]

Good response, thanks anatta.

If you changed the description from weak-tight to tight-aggressive or tight, but tricky post flop, then you have a clear fold pre-flop.

I agree.

AK, AQ, and AJs are 36 hands.

I think he'd raise AJo sometimes, not often though. That's why I used 40 instead of 36 in my analysis. Not a big difference either way.

99 vs AKs to the river is something like 52-48

I probably should have said it in my original post, but there is no chance he'd see the river with AK or AQ unimproved. He would often fold to a bet or raise on the flop, and would always fold by the turn.

But that does not appear to be the case here, and I would fold pre-flop.

You may be right. I actually think I could have folded on the flop since he wouldn't bet unimproved overcards into me very often. That (in addition to the preflop decision) is why I posted this hand. It's a very player dependent decision, so maybe it's not the best one for debate on a forum like this.

The preflop debate is very interesting though. I'm interested in hearing some other opinions.

[Jeffage]

This is an easy fold preflop to this player in my opinion. If a tight solid player is raising UTG you either have a slight advantage to something like AK or are way behind to an overpair. Just muck it, and no this is not a weak fold preflop against this player.

Jeff

[PokerPrince]

I don't think the 9's being a 6:5 favourite over AK,AQ,and AJ is truly THAT significant. The play could also very likely be holding AA-TT in which case the 9's are toast. Add in the fact that there are many more players who have yet to enter the pot meaning there's not a great chance to get it heads up. At least the games where I play.

PokerPrince

[bad beetz]

Suppose I'm playing in a fairly loose $6/$12 game.

Suppose I follow HPFAP starting strategy.

I raise in EP.

You are next to act.

What do you raise or call with? I'm assuming you would call with little or nothing, so what do you three bet with?

[FishyWhale]

AA or TT. You could also have folded (if you don´t think that there will be many cold-callers) or called (if the game is loose) preflop. On the flop you could also just call and fold/bet the turn if EP bets/checks.

[techsan]

Newbie Question.
How do you quickly calculate things like AA-TT is 30 hands? Is there a shortcut? What about the 99 vs AKs 52-48? I'm learning here and appreciate your patience.

[glen]

"heads-up, 99 has a significant advantage over AK AQ AJ KQ. There is no reason to muck them, in fact I'm sure it'd be a mistake."

Heads-up, 22 has a significant advantage over AK AQ AJ KQ. Are you sure you would play that powerhouse? How do you feel about a J, Q, K, or Ace on the flop?. . . If the guy is weak tight, and will fold overcards on the turn to a raggedy board or will assume he's against a big pair since he got three-bet, then I think you can make a player-dependent case for playing it. Your logic, however, is severly flawed if you only take heads-up match up against five cards without factoring in post flop play.

[Clarkmeister]

Seems pretty similar to my " 10-20: TOP-ish free card concept" thread in Medium Stakes forum a few days ago.

You played yours the same way I played mine, and the same way I'd likely play it the next time. But I'm still not convinced its the right line.

[Jeffage]

If I know you play well, I will be very selective about the hands I 3-bet you with if you have raised RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME. If you raise UTG and two people coldcall, I will coldcall with something like 77. If I'm next to act with it, I can't guarantee the action behind me and I'm likely slightly ahead (with a hand that will be difficult to play postflop unless I flop a set) or way behind to a larger pair...in this case I am paying a premium to draw to 2 cards and may lose more If I try to bully a little postflop. Again if I am next to act I am raising or folding and if I respect your play you damn well better respect my reraise.

Jeff

[J.R.]

99 has about a 5-4 advantage if if they go to the river, depending on the suits. Granted you have position, three bet and your opponent may not be aggresisve, but is your advantage a significant advantage when veiwing AK as a proxy for two overcards?

Additionally, a little less than half of the hands you will be against are overpairs to which 99 is a big dog. I don't like this pre-flop three-bet unless your opponent plays predictably and weak becuase I dont see your edge when your opponent hold just overcards being that large. Further, overcards are going to fall on the flop the majority of the time, making it hard to sense where your are unless your opponent is weak (will fold to pressure) and predictable (only bets a pair).