How much credit do I have to give this guy?

[Turtle]

Villian is tight 05/03 over just 30 hands. No other history besides that. Trying not to over emphasize stats over small
samples....

No idea why I three bet preflop. None.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.16 BB

[paperchamp]

I think if you have no read on a person then you have to give them some credit until you find out otherwise. With that in mind I'm putting him on AA, KK, QQ, or AK with his capping of the pot pre-flop.

Since he bet out on the flop I'm probably not putting him on QQ. More likely he would have just checked with the boat but his check on the turn scares me because with the flush draw now present, I would think that with AA or KK he would not risk giving a free card. Suddenly I'm worried that he might have overplayed 77. At this point in the hand I would have bet out on the river like you did but I would have just called the re-raise.

[Redeye]

Just call the river c/r. 3-betting the river is really spewing chips with the way this guy played his hand. Him c/r you on the turn probably means he has QQ and when he does it again on the river I think it definately means he probably has QQ or AA.

[Turtle]

Just used to so much bad play on party 3/6 that I thought the guy was overplaying AK.

Agreed-- the reraise was pushing too far.

The dude turned over a very well played QQ.

Thanks-

Jeff

[Michael Davis]

Because you have the ace of hearts the river checkraise always means you lose. Against this guy it probably does even if you didn't. This guy is not representing a Q on the turn with his numbers.

-Michael

[toss]

Your river 3-bet was going too far. He checkraised on the turn and he's doing it again on the river!

[Turtle]

You know, I went back and checked his numbers.....I only had stats on him for about 10 hands, not 30.

Two questions:

When do you start determining your play based upon stats?

Would my line have been so egregiously bad against an unknown player?

-jeff