Checking flop to protect hand on the turn

[istewart]

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Number three of the three most misapplied SSH principles I see.

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I was waiting for you to show up [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[davelin]

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Number three of the three most misapplied SSH principles I see.

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I was waiting for you to show up [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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[Shillx]

There are a few problems with this line:

1) You don't know where the turn bet will come from. It is best to make this play when it goes 3-bets preflop (and you are the 3-bettor) and you act right behind the PFR. So let's say that in this hand MP3 was the PFR and you made it 3-bets. It would sometimes be correct to check behind on the flop and then raise his upcoming turn bet. The problem with checking here is that you don't know if and where a turn bet would come from. If the SB leads out on the turn and gets 5 callers, you won't be albe to knock anyone out with a raise.

2) You should save this play for when you have a strong hand. So with aces or kings this play has its upsides but QQ and JJ are just to vulnerable to check. You would really like to fold out a hand like A4 or K7 and a flop bet might do it.

Brad

[MrWookie47]

I could see calling an EP bet here with the intention of raising the turn for better protection here, but checking behind here is missing out on value. You don't always have to bet to protect. Bet for value. An overpair has a huge equity edge here, especially since no one as told you otherwise.

Please, if you like money, bet the flop.

[Ajax410]

The point that I'm trying to make is this (and please, if I'm not making sense someone please tell me):

1) At micro limits, you are often seeing flops with 4-6 players.

2) Most of these players will call and see the turn no matter what comes on the flop (unless they're forced to call 2 cold...then they'll stop and think and SOMETIMES fold).

3) If there is NO good card that can come when you're holding a small overpair, why put the extra money in the pot when you know that you're just going to get called by 4 people all hoping their overcards will hit?

For those of you who don't know me (I was gone from 2+2 for a long time), I always advocate aggressive play. I just don't think that, unless you're able to raise and force the field to call 2 cold, a bet here is in your best interest. The fact is, you're going to get called, the turn is going to hurt your hand strength, and you're going to end up having to play the turn weakly after betting the flop. That doesn't sound like a great game plan to me.

Alex

[cmwck]

noooooooooooo! please, bet the flop.

[cmwck]

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It's better to check there because everyone has the pot odds to call your flop bet due to the size of the pot on the flop. However, you're hoping a non-dangerous card comes on the turn, you can bet/raise and then people don't have the pot odds to call your turn bet.

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But in the 77 situation there are fewer (if any) safe turn cards than with JJ. So even if they're getting decent odds, we need to give people the chance to fold as soon as possible. I'm thinking about the 'Two Overpair Hands' section in SSHE, where Ed advocates waiting until the turn to raise with AA but not TT (iirc?), partially due to the greater number of scary turn cards with TT.

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You have the examples backwards. With AA you should raise immediately on the flop. With TT you should wait until the turn. With TT you are passing up a small edge on the flop to exploit a bigger edge on the turn.

[davelin]

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The point that I'm trying to make is this (and please, if I'm not making sense someone please tell me):

1) At micro limits, you are often seeing flops with 4-6 players.

2) Most of these players will call and see the turn no matter what comes on the flop (unless they're forced to call 2 cold...then they'll stop and think and SOMETIMES fold).

3) If there is NO good card that can come when you're holding a small overpair, why put the extra money in the pot when you know that you're just going to get called by 4 people all hoping their overcards will hit?

For those of you who don't know me (I was gone from 2+2 for a long time), I always advocate aggressive play. I just don't think that, unless you're able to raise and force the field to call 2 cold, a bet here is in your best interest. The fact is, you're going to get called, the turn is going to hurt your hand strength, and you're going to end up having to play the turn weakly after betting the flop. That doesn't sound like a great game plan to me.

Alex

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1) True
2) Not always true, besides calling one may even be a mistake for some of their holdings, why not bet and capitalize on their mistake or at the very least get value from our equity?
3) ? There are a lot of cards that can come out on the turn that makes me feel good about my holding.

[Shillx]

There are two ways to play this hand:

1) To get maximum value
2) To maximize our chances of winning the pot

Elaboration:

Value Play #1 - If we are looking to get max value, we should bet the flop. We don't expect anyone to fold a hand that has a fighting chance against us, but if someone calls the flop with a 5-outer, we are making money on his call. With seven other people in the pot, we won't always have the best hand here but our jacks will figure to have the best equity if the hand is played an infinate number of times and thus we bet for value.

Value Play #2 - We can sometimes get value by checking the flop as well. Let's say that we check the flop and the turn is a blank. To our suprise, the SB bets out into the field and everyone in the middle calls. Now we should raise, and this raise is purely for value. We aren't expecting anyone to fold to the raise as it is rare that people will fold for another bet after they put one in. In this situation we passed up on a flop value bet to hopefully exploit a larger turn edge (should a blank fall). If a bad card came on the turn (such as an ace) then we could get away from our hand if the action told us to do so. By waiting to see what the turn brings, we can charge people twice as much money to draw with a lesser risk since there is only one card to come that can beat us.

Maximize Winning - We can't maximize our chance of winning by betting the flop since people don't figure to fold. Our best chance to win this pot is to check the flop and see what the turn brings. To our pleasure we see that the turn is a brick and the action gets checked to the player directly on our right and he bets into us. Now we should raise to maximize our winning chances. We will be giving the 1st coldcaller just 5:1 odds which is enough to fold out a hand like AK or KQ. It is also enough to fold out middle or bottom pair. Obviously anyone with a flush draw or OESD (or a ten) isn't going to fold, but they are paying a steep price to draw and we are making money on these calls. Anyone who decides to call taking way the worse of it is putting money in our wallets so if someone calls the turn raise with a gutshot, he is making a significant mistake. If people decided to correctly fold these hands, they are increasing the hero's chance of winning this big pot (while sacrificing value).

As it all applies to this hand - The problem with checking this hand on the flop is that we don't know who will bet the turn (or if it will get checked to us again). Sometimes an EP player will bet and then we will raise for value. Sometimes we will be able to force everyone to call two bets cold and then we will raise to maximize our winning chances. In general, the bigger the pot the more you should try to max out your winning chances. This pot is big but by no means huge. By checking the flop, the turn will often times get bey by an EP player and thus we are stuck raising the turn for value. But if we are going to raise the turn for value...why didn't we bet the flop for value? This is why I like betting the flop in this hand. If you knew that the player to your right would bet the turn, then checking the flop might have merit.

The last thing to consider is the strength of your hand. With JJ you should be more inclined to bet the flop for value as one of two things might happen:

1) Someone might fold a hand like Qx and increase our winning chances.

2) If a bad card comes on the turn and we get directly bet into, we have a really tough choice between raising and fold. If a queen hits on the turn and the player to our right bets into us on the turn should we raise because he only has a ten? Should we fold because he has a queen?

With black aces on this flop I would like checking more then with JJ. We can be much more confident in a turn raise since there are fewer scare cards (except a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) and it is tough to pull the trigger on a raise when an overcard falls eventhough you will have the best hand often enough to make it the correct play.

So again, the best way to maximize your winning chances are:

1) You have a big hand like AA or KK.
2) If you check behind on the flop, the most likely turn bet will come from your direct right. So if everyone limps, the CO raises and you 3-bet AA on the button (everyone calls) it would almost always be correct to check behind on the flop. Then you would hope to raise the CO's turn bet since he is the most likely turn bettor.
3) The pot is very large. It usually has to go 3 or more bets preflop to consider making this play.

Brad

[just2pimp]

I dont even think the raise on the turn can protect us enough against the flush draw, I think betting out the flop is more for value and definetly raise if someone in front of you does bet