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#11
04-10-2005, 03:02 AM
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Re: 2/4 JJ
Villian's hand either beats Hero (diamonds, KK) or loses (TT). You have $175 left. You're not pushing off KK or AA here. Once he called the turn, he was committing himself to his pair, assuming he has one and not diamonds.
Actually, I didn't look at the stack sizes. Maybe it's less possible that he has diamonds, considering the size of Hero's stack on the turn after the bet. Looks a lot like TT now that I reconsider. Since you only have $175 left, might as well throw it in, but don't expect him to fold anythig here. This is a pure value bet. 
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#12
04-10-2005, 04:11 AM
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Re: 2/4 JJ
Yeah, he had TT. Not sure if he'd have called a river bet.
Bobbo, the main reason I bet the turn is he seems really prone to overbet pots. So even by flat-calling the flop and keeping the pot as small as possible it still doesn't help with the river. Pot is $200, he could very well push in the rest, and I'd rather spend $150 to find out if I'm ahead than $310. I didn't know either if he was sophisticated enough to overbet pots with good hands, either. Checking behind seems futile since the pot is already out of control. After watching his play closer, it seems he only overbets with marginal hands. Had I known that, optimally I would have flat-called his flop bet and been able to check behind and flat-call a river bet or squeak out a possible value bet on the river.
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#13
04-10-2005, 04:20 AM
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Re: 2/4 JJ
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, he had TT. Not sure if he'd have called a river bet. [/ QUOTE ] If he called the turn (which he did) he's not finding a fold on the river for a small bet. You had ~175 and pot was ~500, screw my advice about small bet, pushing the rest in might work. All flop draws which were obvious missed (JT, clubs) plus no overcard (A or K) fell to scare a low pp. I can't fault your check though =) Just saying once hecalls the turn he's calling the river. He's not calling to spike 2 outer. [ QUOTE ] Checking behind seems futile since the pot is already out of control. [/ QUOTE ] Given your later read, plus his action on theflop, I think you're right. Nice move. [ QUOTE ] or squeak out a possible value bet on the river. [/ QUOTE ] Any bet you'd make I think should be all in, addressed above, but really, NH.
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