Horse Racing HELP!!

[valenzuela]

favourites are over-rated NEVER bet for them, a dirty trick Is to bet horses that are wayyyyyyy over-rated for instance a horse that should pay 50-1 and is suddenly paying 8-1. If the trainer and the jockey are kinda unknown it might work. Its hard to maintain the discpline of betting every 2 or 3 races, I just gamble at horse racing ocasionaly for fun and I only gamble in the track( not on bookies or online), going to horse-racing is like going to watch a football game for me.

[bathroompants]

So, I went to the track and sat out the first 3 races and tried to look for trends in the favorites postings in the guide. Then went on to win 3 exactas and 1 bet on the winner. After the first 3 races I picked the winner for every race, but tried to get fancy by doing exactas and trifectas since thats the best money money odds I was finding.

Net profit - $380

Not a bad day at all for my first try.

[valenzuela]

Nice, I have winning days as well but I doubt u can beat horse racing in the long run if you dont know a trainer or something.

[playersare]

in races 4 through 10 at keeneland today that you wagered, the odds on 1st or 2nd choice won 6 out of 7 times.

in the long run you'll find that happens only about 1/3 of the time though. good luck down the line.

[PairTheBoard]

I think longshots tend to be overbet so avoiding them probably helps.

The Ziemba system is probably bonafide but everyone knows about it these days and opportunities are scarce. People tend to underbet favorites to Show because the payoff is so small. You can tell when this happens by comparing the Mutual Pools. By rights the ratios between horses should be the same for Win,Place,and Show. But sometimes you'll see a disparity for example: 70% of the mutual pool is bet on horse F to Win but only 35% of the show pool is bet on Horse F. If this disparity persists bet F to Show at the last minute. Unfortunately you will see Ziemba bettors in action when the show pool moves dramatically in the last few minutes, thus eliminating everybody's Ziemba Edge.

PairTheBoard

[bathroompants]

Well, what I noticed at Keeneland today, was that the horse that was rated highest in class won the race, and the horse that was rated the highest in place took second, so I bet an exacta with the horses who were rated highest class and rank, and then picked another horse who had good odds, and ended up showing up the native kentuckians up who've been going to keeneland's opening days their whole lives.