MLB 4/8 and beyond

Buck_65 · #1 04-08-2005, 01:53 AM

It appears there is a LOT of money to be made betting the Oakland Athletics. If you don't see why, subscribe to baseballprospectus.com and do some serious research.

Oakland (Blanton) -115 at Tampa Bay (Bell)

If the lines continue to be this ridiculous, I'll be betting the A's every game. I can't wait to see how wrong Sunday's line will be for Harden's season debut.

And no, I'm not simply looking results from the first 3 games. When Crosby returns, this team will be better than they were last year. Right now they're just damn good. Good luck.

TheRover · #2 04-08-2005, 02:17 AM

I like Colorado+150 quite a bit. Both teams' offenses and bullpens are about equally mediocre, but Jeff Francis is going to be a stud if Coors doesn't totally mind [censored] him. Lowry was solid last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if that wasn't a fluke to some extent.

Agree completely about Oakland. Their pitching staff has a remarkable amount of potential all over the place...

Buck_65 · #3 04-08-2005, 02:27 AM

Nice call on Colorado, I missed that one. The Giants are pretty terrible without Bonds, and Lowry doesn't have a whole lot of upside that I know of.

I put small wagers on the following games, but I'm not confident enough in them to recommend them to the mass public:

Texas (Park) even at Seattle (Sele)
This is a battle of terrible pitching, but the Rangers' offense is far superior.

Cleveland (Elarton) +120 at Detroit (Robertson)
Exact same story as above game.

Cincinnati (Ortiz) +150 at Houston (Clemens)
Seriously, just look at the lineups. Also, Clemens blew in the spring and has been having health issues. He is 64 after all.

Thoughts? Fade my picks and make money? Good luck all.

TheRover · #4 04-08-2005, 02:49 AM

Cleveland was the other game that I bet. Elarton had a 4.12 ERA after the All-Star break, FWIW.

I'd lean towards Seattle simply due to the black hole of suck that is Chan Ho Park, but I'll probably stay away from the game altogether depending on what the o/u is. Cincy is interesting, but I can't go against Clemens.

Just my opinions...

bugstud · #5 04-08-2005, 03:05 AM

I'm in on both of these and debating cinci +145 or so against clemens

plus_man · #6 04-08-2005, 03:43 AM

So far from the games on 4/8 that you've talked about in this thread, I have Detroit(-140),Oakland (-110),
Houston (-165), and San Fran (-165). My reasoning is this. I've noticed in my time gambling that the teams with the "minus" win more often than the teams with the "plus"
And another thing that I discovered is that when I combine the "minus" teams that the sportsbooks say will win, I can get more money back than what I risk. What a deal!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

null · #7 04-08-2005, 04:02 AM

I bet over 9 -125 on the Texas vs Seattle game. Also was looking at the Oakland game (I had them today), with your ringing endorsement I'll play it. You can get Oakland at -102 on pinnacle btw. Also you can scalp the brewers/cubs game, brewers +200 at bowmans/cubs -194 at pinnacle.

DougOzzzz · #8 04-08-2005, 07:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It appears there is a LOT of money to be made betting the Oakland Athletics. If you don't see why, subscribe to baseballprospectus.com and do some serious research.

Oakland (Blanton) -115 at Tampa Bay (Bell)

If the lines continue to be this ridiculous, I'll be betting the A's every game. I can't wait to see how wrong Sunday's line will be for Harden's season debut.

And no, I'm not simply looking results from the first 3 games. When Crosby returns, this team will be better than they were last year. Right now they're just damn good. Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure where you read on BP that they'd be better this year than last. The general feeling over there seems to be that they'll win ~90 games and are slight favorites to win the division. Nevertheless, that's about 10% more wins than the public expects, so there is certainly some value in betting them.

I bet them yesterday and will follow up again today at -102.

I like Colorado too, because of Francis. Though that offense is usually pitiful away from Coors.

CHCWSin05 · #9 04-08-2005, 11:32 AM

Oak -110
Col/SF under 9 -135
Col +135
Chc -1.5 +110

YTD: 0-1 (-1 unit)

Hombre · #10 04-08-2005, 11:42 AM

I like Col. at +140 as well. Jeff Francis does have tremendous upside, but Lowry is a decent prospect also. Regardless of the outcome watching these two pitch may be valuable for betting later in the season. Giants bats are still in hibernation.

Not crazy about any other games on the board. LA vs ARI matchup looks ok. Elmer Dessens is awful. Period. I'll play the Dbacks either at -108 or -1.5 for +170.

Hombre