Sklansky 30-60 hand

[Mikey]

wouldn't that also mean that you should call with a pair of 2's in this spot, since you are getting those same odds to flop a set.

The reason why I would also fold.....would be because your out of position when you miss your set, and also you risk losing more to an over pair, because the Solid winning player raised.

Also the cutoff (unknown) cold calling.....I've seen unknowns call cold with KK, QQ, JJ preflop as well as well as AKs, AKo, AQs, so just because he's unknown doesn't mean he can't have a big hand.

Plus he could also be cold calling with a hand like QJs or just plain QJ, so if all those picture cards are locked up including the A if the solding winning player is raising with AK, you can be in even bigger trouble, and you need to flop your set to win.

That's why...I don't think the situation is favorable and I'm going to fold here.

[Matt D]

Yes, I would call here with 22, even though you lose more often with a set of 2's than with a set of tens. That's how bad I think a fold is.

[Clarkmeister]

I'll post my thoughts now, and throw up David's thoughts (as relayed by Mason) later on after a bit more discussion.

At first, I thought calling was the optimal play, with raising reaonable and folding being awful. Now, I think that raising and calling are very very close, and folding is still a poor choice.

I simply think that a "winning players" range of open raising hands in MP is going to be sufficiently large that I have every reason to think I have the best hand, and could very well be against hands that include 88 and A9s. The coldcaller could also have a wide range of hands that include stuff like 9Ts. Yes, we could be up against AK and QJ, but by no means is that necessary. We could also be against 99 and 78s.

Calling gains us deception, helps us with our set flopping odds when we are against an overpair, and gives us some postflop advantages.

Raising keeps the pot 3 handed, puts pressure on the preflop raiser, and likely makes it easier for us to know where we are at on future streets.

At dinner, Nolan Dalla persuaded me that raising may be better than calling. His most persuasive arguement was his description of how the hand plays out when an ace flops and the preflop raiser also has a pocket pair. 3 betting preflop likely wins us most of those pots, while calling loses them.

As an aside, I also noted to Mason at the meeting that I would also call with 22 in that spot. Without giving away Sklansky's thoughts, Mason thought calling with 22 was likely marginally -EV, but probabaly not a very big mistake, if it was a mistake at all.

At dinner, I said that while I would call with TT, I would 3 bet with AQo. The group seemed to think that was a reasonable play.

[Penguin]

I would call:
- A solid winning player and a cold caller are going to be hard to play against after the flop. There is a chance that I am already behind, and given that most flops will have overcards, I do not want to invest too much before the flop.
- I don't mind having the BB come along since with 2 others already in, I don't think the BB makes the overcard problem any worse.
- I'm not going to fold since I'm getting 4:1, and the combination of trips and flops where I can be aggressive with my pair make those odds worthwhile.

Raising would be my last choice. I'm not going to get it heads up and I am not good enough to play a pair of tens well from first position (without help on the flop) against a very good player who holds a wide range of potential hands, as well as another player who I assume at least has big cards.

Folding doesn't seem reasonable either - the hand is just to good to fold with those pot odds.

So as I write this I don't think its close (although at the table I would think it was close between calling and raising)

[astroglide]

what is the poker discussion group? how many memebers, who decides the members, how often do they meet, etc.

[Clarkmeister]

I think its rather small. This weeks huge turnout was an anomaly. It is open to anyone. I suggest emailing or private messaging Al Schoonmaker or Pokerbabe for more details because I've only gone twice and they know more than I do.

[Tom W.]

I prefer to reraise, and try to knock out the BB and get it three way. If the flop comes good, meaning no overcards, I would play it fast. 3 betting also opens the betting back up to find out what the MP is going to do.

[Tommy Angelo]

"Mason thought calling with 22 was likely marginally -EV, but probabaly not a very big mistake, if it was a mistake at all."

I don't see how a play having -EV has anything to do with it being a mistake. If one optional play is, say, -1EV, and the others are -2EV and -3EV, then isn't the -1EV choice the best play? Hands down? No probably about it? With no room for "if it is a mistake at all"? And aren't the other options, by definition, mistakes?

So, with 22, calling is either better than raising, AND better than folding, or else it is a clearcut mistake, right? Am I missing something?

Tommy

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

The answer is that it is close between raising, calling, and folding.

When I get a chance, I'll try to come back and review this thread.

Best wishes,
mason

[spiral]

I replied to your post because it was one of the first that advocated calling.

I was suprised to see so many people say this. To me a raise is automatic if there is a 4 bet cap and MP respects your play. If the cap is 5 bets, it may play a little differently, I don't have much experience in that structure.

The fact that MP is a solid winning player helps you a lot. First, his MP raise could be made with many hands worse than yours, and second, he will recognize that you should have a big hand here.

I bet the flop and expect MP to fold the majority of the time. I would do this even if MP 4 bet because if he has a read on the unknown player he might do this to attempt to knock the CO out and get some dead money. If MP doesn't fold on the flop I will reevaluate.

If MP 4 bets with a 5 bet cap it's a tough spot, and this could be part of the reason the Vegas players feel it is close.