is calling this down justified?

[SuitedBaby]

I like this reply. But I just don't agree with it. If you were correct (and you might be) your point would be excellent. However even though I really like them, sims are just approximations. I made assumptions, you made assumptions. I am saying this hand is more probably neutral EV than eithet + or -. I might be wrong but it is impossible to say. If your 4th strret sim is on then it may be wrong to fold but there are many scenarios. Including who folds and when and who bets and when. JJJ isn't folding if that is what he has. Your 3.3% somewhat backs-up my point in that you will never know where you are at but the good made lows and full houses will.

I am just making the point that I think this hand is a problem and little is lost by folding. Good discussion regardless. BTW I live in Rocky River.

[TheShootah]

Hmmm...I would say that my sim is probably accurate enough to say the laydown is wrong. See JJJ won't fold. That is correct, but lets face it, that is almost surely not what he has. He might have even less than what I gave him. Those lows probably don't have what I gave them either. It seems like if you hit your hand you will probably see the rest of the streets. In this hand, it doesn't matter if you know where you are at. Hehehe....if you make your hand, lets say the flush, you are seeing the end. If you make a low, you are probably going to see it to the end. And if you make a low and a flush, you are surely seeing the river! I would say that the hands that I gave the sims only get weaker: so my sim might be on the lower end of equity. But alas, we have no idea and we are pretty much splitting hairs. Either play is probably ok. Nice argument none the less. And glad to see you live quite close. Where abouts in RR?

[Andy B]

At the risk of being a prick, please cite an example of a situation where two different plays have the same EV but different variances.

[Andy B]

So he's a big dog heads-up against trip Jacks. That's a no-brainer, but that isn't what's important, to my way of thinking. What's important is what his expectation is vs. the field, since there are a lot of players in this pot. I honestly don't know how he does vs. the field since I don't know whether to give all the guys with low boards credit for quality four-card lows. If that's what they have, he's probably in trouble. I'm guessing that if there's only one quality low draw and a lot of garbage out there, however, he just might have enough equity to continue, but I haven't set out to test this hypothesis.

[SuitedBaby]

Disregarding antes/blinds if your EV on a given hand is zero when you play then it is the same when you fold since then they are all zero (we can easily allow for antes/blinds if you insist). However if you play, the variance is greater. Much. Keep the unused money in your interest bearing account or get yourself a horse.

I didn't mean to annoy people with my point of view, just putting in my 2 cents. If you are up against JJJ then you are a dog including the field. If not then you may have a small edge. Bad situation. Marginal hands, multiway, in hard to read situations just aren't a money maker for me. I like bigger edges.

[TheShootah]

I don't really know how Andy sees it(his view of these things is certainly better than I) but it seems MUCH MUCH more likely that the hand isn't trip jacks. Two pair or something else is much more likely. And the fact is this hand is pretty automatic after 4th. He caught a heart, called, called again, etc. The same would happen if he caught a decent low card.

[Andy B]

I asked you to cite an example. I don't happen to know of one off the top of my head. I could maybe come up with one, but I don't feel like it. My point is that there are a lot of things that you should focus on ahead of reducing variance. If you have anything resembling an adequate bankroll and you do the right thing EV-wise, variance will be a relative non-issue.

I'm guessing that there are situations that aren't money-makers for you that are money-makers for others. The same can certainly be said about me.

[Bartholow]

I don't know what the point of a concrete example is, but I'll try just for the heck of it (and I'll even stick to stud).

Headsup stud high, 6th street, $4 in pot including Player 2's $1 all in bet.

Player 1: 2345JQ
Player 2: KKQJ85

40 unseen cards, 8 of them make player 1 win, player 2 has no redraws.

EV should be exactly $0 whether player 1 calls or folds, but the variance is higher if he calls.

Obviously not very "realistic" hehe.